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Tropical Storm Beryl Public Advisory Number 13A
2018-07-08 19:52:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Sun Jul 08 2018 000 WTNT32 KNHC 081751 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 200 PM AST Sun Jul 08 2018 ...DISORGANIZED BERYL MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES... ...EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE BY THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 59.2W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM E OF MARTINIQUE ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM ESE OF DOMINICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...42 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominica * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of Beryl. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the poorly defined center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 59.2 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 26 mph (42 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl or its remnants will approach the Lesser Antilles this evening, cross the island chain overnight, and move near or south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is anticipated during the next 24 hours, and Beryl is forecast to degenerate into a trough of low pressure by this evening as it moves across the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km), mainly to the north and northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in Dominica and Guadeloupe tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas of the Lesser Antilles by later today or Monday. Strong gusty winds are also possible in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday. RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce storm total rain accumulations of 2 to 3 inches through Tuesday across the Leeward and the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico. Local amounts up to 5 inches are possible. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Beryl Graphics
2018-07-08 16:52:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Jul 2018 14:52:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Jul 2018 14:52:08 GMT
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Tropical Storm Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 13
2018-07-08 16:49:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Jul 08 2018 000 WTNT42 KNHC 081449 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 1100 AM AST Sun Jul 08 2018 An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Beryl earlier this morning was unable to find a closed low-level center. However, the wind data from the aircraft indicated that a sharp through did exist northeastward of the deep convection located in the northeastern quadrant of the larger circulation. Since that time, a stronger burst of convection has developed over the sharp trough, and the assumption is that the convection could have spun up a new center. For that reason, the system is still being considered as a tropical cyclone for this advisory. The highest 850-mb flight-level wind measured was 56 kt in the northeast quad, which equates to about a 45-kt surface wind. However, the advisory intensity is being maintained at 40 kt in case the recent convective development doesn't persist. Another reconnaissance mission into Beryl is scheduled for this evening. The initial motion estimate is 290/20 kt. Beryl is expected to maintain this quick west-northwestward motion through dissipation due to the strong and broad deep-layer ridge that extends east-to-west across most of the subtropical Atlantic Ocean. The latest model guidance remains tightly packed about the previous advisory track, so no significant changes were required. For now, Beryl seems to have found a sweet spot where the vertical wind shear is a little lower and more difluent based on water vapor imagery. However, this localized favorable upper-level wind flow pattern is expected to be short-lived and give way to more hostile shear conditions by 12 hours and beyond when the shear is forecast to increase to more than 25 kt from the west. The result should be a rapid degeneration of the cyclone into an open wave by 24 h when the system will be moving over the eastern Caribbean Sea. However, the system will likely produce strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next couple of days. On days 3-5, there appears to be an opportunity for the remnants of Beryl to regenerate into a tropical cyclone when the system moves through the Bahamas and into the southwestern Atlantic. Vertical wind shear conditions are forecast by most of the models to be light, with even the possibility of the development of a weak upper-level anticyclone across the Bahamas. The combination of the favorable upper-level wind flow pattern in conjunction with sea-surface temperatures of 28-29 deg C should yield conditions conducive for the reformation of a tropical cyclone, although Beryl's low-level remnants are likely to be significantly disrupted by Hispaniola and could take some time to reform. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm warnings and watches are in effect for portions of the Lesser Antilles where Beryl is forecast to bring impacts from wind and rainfall to some of the islands beginning late today or tonight. 2. Although Beryl is forecast to degenerate into a trough of low pressure over the eastern Caribbean, the system is likely to produce strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across the remainder of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 14.4N 57.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 15.4N 60.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 16.8N 64.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL WAVE 36H 10/0000Z 18.4N 68.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL WAVE 48H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Beryl (AT2/AL022018)
2018-07-08 16:49:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BERYL MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Jul 8 the center of Beryl was located near 14.4, -57.9 with movement WNW at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Beryl Forecast Advisory Number 13
2018-07-08 16:49:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 08 2018 000 WTNT22 KNHC 081448 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022018 1500 UTC SUN JUL 08 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BARBADOS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICA * GUADELOUPE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MARTINIQUE...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BERYL. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 57.9W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 57.9W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 56.9W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.4N 60.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.8N 64.9W...TROPICAL WAVE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.4N 68.8W...TROPICAL WAVE MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 57.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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