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Hurricane Beryl Public Advisory Number 8A
2018-07-07 13:38:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Sat Jul 07 2018 000 WTNT32 KNHC 071138 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 800 AM AST Sat Jul 07 2018 ...BERYL A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.7N 50.3W ABOUT 780 MI...1260 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Dominica A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * Martinique * Guadeloupe * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Beryl, as additional watches or warnings could be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 50.3 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west- northwestward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will approach the Lesser Antilles over the weekend and cross the island chain late Sunday or Monday. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts, but recent satellite images suggest that Beryl is becoming less organized. If this trend continues, then Beryl may be downgraded to a tropical storm later this morning. Due to Beryl's small size, short-term changes in intensity, up or down, could continue to occur over the next day or two, and Beryl could still be near hurricane strength as it nears the Lesser Antilles. Weakening is expected once Beryl reaches the eastern Caribbean Sea on Monday, but the system may not degenerate into an open trough until it reaches the vicinity of Hispaniola and the central Caribbean Sea on Tuesday or Wednesday. Beryl is a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas by late Sunday or Monday. RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches through Sunday across the southern Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands, including Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, St. Lucia, and Barbados. Elsewhere across the northern Leeward and southern Windward Islands, rainfall amounts of 2 inches or less are expected. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Beryl Graphics
2018-07-07 11:01:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 07 Jul 2018 09:01:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 07 Jul 2018 09:25:43 GMT
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Hurricane Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 8
2018-07-07 10:59:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Jul 07 2018 000 WTNT42 KNHC 070859 TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 500 AM AST Sat Jul 07 2018 Although there has been no recent microwave imagery to help examine the inner-core structure of Beryl, the small tropical cyclone appears to have lost some organization since yesterday afternoon. Shortwave GOES-16 infrared imagery suggests that the center is near the northwestern portion of the small convective mass. Dvorak data T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB have dropped to T3.5 while CI numbers support keeping Beryl a 65-kt hurricane, but this could be generous. The hurricane seems to have finally gained some latitude and the initial motion estimate is west-northwest or 285/12 kt. Beryl is located to the south of a strong mid-level ridge that is anchored over the west-central Atlantic. This should keep the cyclone on a general west-northwestward heading with some increase in forward speed over the next few days. The track models did not change much this cycle and only slight adjustments were made to the previous NHC forecast. The official forecast is once again along the southern side of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the UKMET and FSSE models. Beryl is expected to remain in a light vertical wind shear environment today, but an increase in westerly shear is expected on Sunday, and the shear is forecast to become quite strong as Beryl moves over the eastern Caribbean early next week. As a result, the new NHC intensity forecast calls for little change in strength during the next 24-36 h, but predicts steady weakening after that time. The updated intensity forecast is lower than the previous advisory due to the lower initial intensity and less bullish intensity guidance. The new NHC forecast also shows Beryl degenerating into an open trough in 3 to 4 days, which is in good agreement within the global models that all predict this to occur while the system moves across the eastern Caribbean. Regardless of whether the system has a closed circulation, it is likely to continue producing strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Greater Antilles next week. Key Messages: 1. Beryl is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Lesser Antilles Sunday night or Monday, and the chance of some islands receiving direct impacts from wind and rainfall continue to increase. Hurricane and tropical storm watches are in effect for some of the countries in the Lesser Antilles, and additional watches could be required for other islands today. 2. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity, and confidence in the official intensity forecast is also lower than normal. Rapid changes in intensity, both up and down, that are difficult to predict are possible during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 11.1N 49.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 11.7N 51.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 12.6N 54.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 13.7N 57.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 14.8N 61.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 17.2N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Hurricane Beryl (AT2/AL022018)
2018-07-07 10:58:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BERYL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Jul 7 the center of Beryl was located near 11.1, -49.8 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane Beryl Public Advisory Number 8
2018-07-07 10:58:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Jul 07 2018 000 WTNT32 KNHC 070858 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 500 AM AST Sat Jul 07 2018 ...BERYL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.1N 49.8W ABOUT 830 MI...1330 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Lucia. The Government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Barbados. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Dominica A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * Martinique * Guadeloupe * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Beryl, as additional watches could be required for other islands later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 49.8 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west- northwestward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will approach the Lesser Antilles over the weekend and cross the island chain late Sunday or Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Due to the small size of the hurricane, short-term changes in intensity, up or down, could occur over the next day or two, but Beryl is forecast to be near hurricane strength as it nears the Lesser Antilles. Weakening is expected once Beryl reaches the eastern Caribbean Sea on Monday, but the system may not degenerate into an open trough until it reaches the vicinity of Hispaniola and the central Caribbean Sea on Tuesday or Wednesday. Beryl is a small hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas by late Sunday or Monday. RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches through Sunday across the southern Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands, including Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, St. Lucia, and Barbados. Elsewhere across the northern Leeward and southern Windward Islands, rainfall amounts of 2 inches or less are expected. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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