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Tropical Storm Beryl Forecast Advisory Number 10

2018-07-07 22:32:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 07 2018 000 WTNT22 KNHC 072032 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022018 2100 UTC SAT JUL 07 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE. THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. MAARTEN HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICA * GUADELOUPE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. LUCIA * MARTINIQUE... ST. MARTIN... AND ST. BARTHELEMY * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO... AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BERYL. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 52.7W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 15SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 52.7W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 52.0W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.4N 55.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.6N 58.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 15.9N 62.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.3N 66.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 52.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Summary for Tropical Storm Beryl (AT2/AL022018)

2018-07-07 22:32:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...BERYL WEAKENING WHILE ACCELERATING TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Jul 7 the center of Beryl was located near 12.7, -52.7 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm Beryl Public Advisory Number 10

2018-07-07 22:32:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Jul 07 2018 000 WTNT32 KNHC 072032 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 500 PM AST Sat Jul 07 2018 ...BERYL WEAKENING WHILE ACCELERATING TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.7N 52.7W ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Guadeloupe. The government of St. Maarten has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Maarten. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominica * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of Beryl. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 52.7 West. Beryl is moving faster toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwestward motion with an additional increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will approach the Lesser Antilles through Sunday, cross the island chain Sunday night, and move south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Beryl is likely to weaken to a tropical depression after moving across the Lesser Antilles. The system could degenerate into an open trough by the time it reaches the central Caribbean Sea and Hispaniola Monday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in Dominica and Guadeloupe Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas of the Lesser Antilles by late Sunday or Monday. RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches through Monday across the southern Leeward and northern Windward Islands. Across the remainder of the Leeward and Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts are expected. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

2018-07-07 22:32:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 07 2018 000 FONT12 KNHC 072032 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022018 2100 UTC SAT JUL 07 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 21(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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