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Tropical Storm Beryl Public Advisory Number 13
2018-07-08 16:49:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Jul 08 2018 000 WTNT32 KNHC 081448 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 1100 AM AST Sun Jul 08 2018 ...BERYL MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 57.9W ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM E OF MARTINIQUE ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM ESE OF DOMINICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Barbados. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominica * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of Beryl. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disorganized center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 57.9 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl or its remnants will approach the Lesser Antilles today, cross the island chain tonight, and move near or south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next 36 hours, and Beryl is forecast to degenerate into a trough of low pressure as it moves across the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in Dominica and Guadeloupe tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas of the Lesser Antilles by later today or Monday. Strong gusty winds are also possible in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday. RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce storm total rain accumulations of 2 to 3 inches through Tuesday across the Leeward and the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico. Local amounts up to 5 inches are possible. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2018-07-08 16:49:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 08 2018 000 FONT12 KNHC 081448 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022018 1500 UTC SUN JUL 08 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) VIEQUES PR 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT CROIX 34 X 12(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BARBUDA 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANTIGUA 34 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GUADELOUPE 34 5 29(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) AVES 34 X 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) DOMINICA 34 10 16(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) MARTINIQUE 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Beryl Graphics
2018-07-08 13:56:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Jul 2018 11:56:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Jul 2018 09:27:00 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Beryl (AT2/AL022018)
2018-07-08 13:53:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BERYL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES... ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS BERYL DISORGANIZED... As of 8:00 AM AST Sun Jul 8 the center of Beryl was located near 14.0, -56.8 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Beryl Public Advisory Number 12A
2018-07-08 13:53:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Sun Jul 08 2018 000 WTNT32 KNHC 081153 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 800 AM AST Sun Jul 08 2018 ...BERYL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES... ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS BERYL DISORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 56.8W ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM ENE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM E OF MARTINIQUE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominica * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of Beryl. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the poorly defined center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 56.8 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl or its remnants will approach the Lesser Antilles today, cross the island chain tonight, and move near or south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next 48 hours, and Beryl is forecast to degenerate into a trough of low pressure as it moves across the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in Dominica and Guadeloupe tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas of the Lesser Antilles by later today or Monday. Strong gusty winds are also possible in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday. RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches through Monday across the southern Leeward and northern Windward Islands. Across Puerto Rico, rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches are expected. Across the remainder of the Leeward and Windward Islands and the Virgin Islands, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts possible. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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