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Tropical Storm Beryl Graphics
2018-07-08 10:55:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Jul 2018 08:55:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Jul 2018 08:55:54 GMT
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beryl
Tropical Storm Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 12
2018-07-08 10:53:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Jul 08 2018 000 WTNT42 KNHC 080853 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 500 AM AST Sun Jul 08 2018 A burst of deep convection developed over the eastern portion of Beryl's circulation just after the release of the previous advisory. The convective burst has expanded overnight and the earlier exposed center of the cyclone is now located near the northwestern edge of the convective cluster. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are unchanged, and the initial intensity remains 40 kt for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route to Beryl and should provide a better assessment of the cyclone's intensity this morning. The intensity forecast reasoning is unchanged from the previous advisory. Westerly vertical wind shear is expected to increase over Beryl during the next 24 to 36 h, and the cyclone will be moving into a drier mid-level environment. As a result, Beryl is expected to weaken and degenerate into a trough of low pressure over the eastern Caribbean Sea. However, the system will likely produce strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next few days. The tropical storm is moving quickly west-northwestward or 290/17 kt. Beryl should continue on this general heading with some increase in forward speed as it is steered by a strong mid-level ridge to the north. The track guidance remains in fairly good agreement but there has been some increase in the cross track spread at 24 and 36 h with the GFS and HWRF along the southern edge of the guidance and the ECMWF bracketing the northern side of the envelope. The NHC track is in the middle of the envelope, close to the various consensus models, and in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm warnings and watches are in effect for portions of the Lesser Antilles where Beryl is forecast to bring impacts from wind and rainfall to some of the islands beginning late today or tonight. 2. Although Beryl is forecast to degenerate into a trough of low pressure over the eastern Caribbean, the system is likely to produce strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across the remainder of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 13.7N 56.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 14.7N 58.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 15.9N 62.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 17.4N 66.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Beryl (AT2/AL022018)
2018-07-08 10:53:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BERYL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES... ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO THE STORM... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Jul 8 the center of Beryl was located near 13.7, -56.0 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Beryl Public Advisory Number 12
2018-07-08 10:53:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Jul 08 2018 000 WTNT32 KNHC 080853 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 500 AM AST Sun Jul 08 2018 ...BERYL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES... ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO THE STORM... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 56.0W ABOUT 240 MI...380 KM E OF BARBADOS ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM E OF MARTINIQUE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of St. Lucia has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for St. Lucia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominica * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of Beryl. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 56.0 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h) and this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will approach the Lesser Antilles today, cross the island chain tonight, and move near or south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Beryl is forecast to degenerate into a trough of low pressure as it moves across the eastern Caribbean Sea on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in Dominica and Guadeloupe tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas of the Lesser Antilles by later today or Monday. Strong gusty winds are also possible in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday. RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches through Monday across the southern Leeward and northern Windward Islands. Across Puerto Rico, rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches are expected. Across the remainder of the Leeward and Windward Islands and the Virgin Islands, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts possible. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2018-07-08 10:53:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 08 2018 000 FONT12 KNHC 080853 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022018 0900 UTC SUN JUL 08 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONCE PR 34 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BARBUDA 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANTIGUA 34 X 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GUADELOUPE 34 X 24(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) AVES 34 X 5( 5) 8(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) DOMINICA 34 X 24(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) MARTINIQUE 34 X 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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