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Tropical Storm Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 11
2018-07-08 04:33:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Jul 07 2018 000 WTNT42 KNHC 080233 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 1100 PM AST Sat Jul 07 2018 Beryl is currently comprised of a small swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with isolated patches of deep convection near and east of the center. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased a little since the previous advisory, and based on them the initial intensity is set to a possibly generous 40 kt. The initial motion is 290/16. A strong low- to mid-level subtropical ridge north of Beryl should steer the system quickly west-northwestward during the next 36-48 h, and the track guidance is in excellent agreement on this. So, the new track forecast is an update of the previous forecast and lies near the center of the track guidance envelope. Westerly vertical wind shear is forecast to increase over Beryl during the next 48 h, and the cyclone will also be moving into a drier and more stable air mass. Based on this, the official intensity forecast calls for continued weakening, with Beryl forecast to weaken to a depression just after moving through the Lesser Antilles and then degenerate into a tropical wave just after 36 h. It should be noted that the official forecast is based on the premise that enough convection will return to the system to partly sustain it, and if this does not happen Beryl could weaken to a wave sooner than currently forecast. However, it should also be noted that even as an open wave the system will likely produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across the Leeward Islands and portions of the Greater Antilles during the next several days. Key Messages: 1. Beryl continues to weaken, but there is still a chance of some islands in the Lesser Antilles receiving direct impacts from wind and rainfall, where tropical storm warnings and watches remain in effect. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will also be possible across the remainder of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola through early next week. 2. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity, and confidence in the official intensity forecast is also lower than normal. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 13.1N 54.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 14.0N 56.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 15.3N 60.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 16.6N 64.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2018-07-08 04:33:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 08 2018 000 FONT12 KNHC 080233 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022018 0300 UTC SUN JUL 08 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANTIGUA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GUADELOUPE 34 X 4( 4) 16(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) AVES 34 X X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DOMINICA 34 X 6( 6) 11(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) MARTINIQUE 34 X 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Beryl Forecast Advisory Number 11
2018-07-08 04:33:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 08 2018 000 WTNT22 KNHC 080233 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022018 0300 UTC SUN JUL 08 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICA * GUADELOUPE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. LUCIA * MARTINIQUE... ST. MARTIN... AND ST. BARTHELEMY * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO... AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BERYL. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 54.3W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 54.3W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 53.5W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 14.0N 56.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.3N 60.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.6N 64.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 54.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Storm Beryl (AT2/AL022018)
2018-07-08 04:33:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BERYL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Jul 7 the center of Beryl was located near 13.1, -54.3 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Beryl Public Advisory Number 11
2018-07-08 04:33:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Jul 07 2018 000 WTNT32 KNHC 080233 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 1100 PM AST Sat Jul 07 2018 ...BERYL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 54.3W ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominica * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of Beryl. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 54.3 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will approach the Lesser Antilles through Sunday, cross the island chain Sunday night, and move south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Beryl is likely to weaken to a tropical depression after moving across the Lesser Antilles. The system is then expected to degenerate into a tropical wave as it moves across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in Dominica and Guadeloupe Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas of the Lesser Antilles by late Sunday or Monday. RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches through Monday across the southern Leeward and northern Windward Islands. Across Puerto Rico, rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches are expected. Across the remainder of the Leeward and Windward Islands and the Virgin Islands, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts possible. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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