je.st
news
Tag: beryl
Summary for Tropical Storm Beryl (AT2/AL022018)
2018-07-07 19:38:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BERYL WEAKENS FURTHER... As of 2:00 PM AST Sat Jul 7 the center of Beryl was located near 12.4, -51.9 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
beryl
Tropical Storm Beryl Public Advisory Number 9A
2018-07-07 19:38:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Sat Jul 07 2018 000 WTNT32 KNHC 071738 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 200 PM AST Sat Jul 07 2018 ...BERYL WEAKENS FURTHER... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.4N 51.9W ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominica A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * Martinique, Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Beryl, as additional watches or warnings could be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 51.9 West. Beryl is moving faster toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwestward motion with an additional increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will approach the Lesser Antilles over the weekend, cross the island chain late Sunday or Monday, and move south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday and Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, especially once Beryl reaches the eastern Caribbean Sea on Monday. The system could degenerate into an open trough by the time it reaches the central Caribbean Sea and Hispaniola on Tuesday. Beryl is a small tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in Dominica by Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas of the Lesser Antilles by late Sunday or Monday. RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches through Monday across the southern Leeward and northern Windward Islands. Across the remainder of the Leeward and Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts are expected. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Beryl Graphics
2018-07-07 16:51:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 07 Jul 2018 14:51:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 07 Jul 2018 15:26:50 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
beryl
Tropical Storm Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 9
2018-07-07 16:47:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Jul 07 2018 000 WTNT42 KNHC 071447 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 1100 AM AST Sat Jul 07 2018 Beryl's small size was always going to make it prone to wild and unpredictable fluctuations in intensity, and that appears to have come to fruition this morning. The cyclone's low-level center is now completely exposed with all associated deep convection displaced to the east and southeast. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have decreased accordingly, and the initial intensity is set at 55 kt, with Beryl being downgraded to a tropical storm. Even though upper-level winds over the system remain light, and upper-level cloud motions are still from east to west, strengthening low-level flow is likely leading to an increase in the deep-layer westerly shear. In fact, analyses from UW-CIMSS indicate that about 15 kt of westerly shear is now over the system. The shear and a very dry ambient environment have likely caused the small and fragile cyclone to suddenly weaken. Since the low-level flow is expected to increase further, and Beryl will be running into upper-level westerlies in 36-48 hours, the shear is only expected to become more hostile. This will make it extremely difficult for Beryl to become more organized again, and its chances of being a hurricane before reaching the Lesser Antilles have decreased significantly. The updated NHC intensity forecast has been lowered from the previous advisory, and now keeps Beryl as a tropical storm through the forecast period. The forecast intensities could still be a little high, and this prediction will remain low confidence until we get a better handle on Beryl's initial intensity. Even though a 72-hour forecast is provided, it is entirely possible that Beryl will open up into a trough over the eastern Caribbean Sea before that time. Regardless of whether the system has a closed circulation, it is likely to continue producing strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Greater Antilles next week. Beryl is now gaining more latitude and has an initial motion of 295/12 kt. The cyclone is still expected to accelerate toward the west-northwest during the next several days, and the track guidance remains tightly clustered through the forecast period. The new NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly northward due to Beryl's recent northwestward jog, and it lies relatively close to the HCCA guidance. Key Messages: 1. Beryl is no longer forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Lesser Antilles Sunday night or Monday, but the chance of some islands receiving direct impacts from wind and rainfall continues. Tropical storm warnings and watches are in effect for some of the countries in the Lesser Antilles, and additional watches or warnings could be required for other islands later today. 2. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity, and confidence in the official intensity forecast is also lower than normal. Rapid changes in intensity, both up and down, that are difficult to predict are possible during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 12.1N 51.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 12.6N 52.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 13.6N 56.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 14.8N 59.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 15.9N 63.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 18.3N 71.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2018-07-07 16:47:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 07 2018 000 FONT12 KNHC 071447 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022018 1500 UTC SAT JUL 07 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) X(21) X(21) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) X(20) X(20) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) X(15) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) X(25) X(25) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 32(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) AVES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 6(35) X(35) X(35) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 39(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) 11(11) 22(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBADOS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Sites : [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] next »