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Tropical Storm Beryl Graphics
2018-07-08 01:41:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 07 Jul 2018 23:41:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 07 Jul 2018 21:25:41 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Beryl (AT2/AL022018)
2018-07-08 01:41:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BERYL REMAINS DISORGANIZED AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES... As of 8:00 PM AST Sat Jul 7 the center of Beryl was located near 12.9, -53.5 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Beryl Public Advisory Number 10A
2018-07-08 01:41:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Sat Jul 07 2018 000 WTNT32 KNHC 072341 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 800 PM AST Sat Jul 07 2018 ...BERYL REMAINS DISORGANIZED AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.9N 53.5W ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominica * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of Beryl. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located near latitude 12.9 North, longitude 53.5 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will approach the Lesser Antilles through Sunday, cross the island chain Sunday night, and move south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Beryl is likely to weaken to a tropical depression after moving across the Lesser Antilles. The system could degenerate into an open trough by the time it reaches the central Caribbean Sea and Hispaniola Monday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in Dominica and Guadeloupe Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas of the Lesser Antilles by late Sunday or Monday. RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches through Monday across the southern Leeward and northern Windward Islands. Across the remainder of the Leeward and Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts are expected. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Beryl Graphics
2018-07-07 22:34:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 07 Jul 2018 20:34:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 07 Jul 2018 21:25:41 GMT
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Tropical Storm Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 10
2018-07-07 22:32:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Jul 07 2018 000 WTNT42 KNHC 072032 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 500 PM AST Sat Jul 07 2018 Beryl has not changed much in appearance since this morning. The storm still has a tight low-level circulation with all of the deep convection displaced to the east and southeast of the center. Scatterometer data missed the circulation this morning, and we still do not have a good handle on Beryl's maximum winds. Dvorak CI numbers are now 3.0 from both TAFB and SAB, so the initial intensity will be lowered to 45 kt, which could still be generous. Beryl seems to be accelerating sooner than initially anticipated, and the 12-hour motion is now west-northwestward, or 295/15 kt. Not only is the cyclone moving a little faster now, but the track guidance is also showing a faster future motion than it had been indicating. The overall guidance envelope has also shifted slightly northward. Therefore, the new NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous forecast to be closer to the multi-model consensus aids, and it has been shifted ever-so-slightly to the north as well. With the low-level easterlies around Beryl increasing, and the cyclone expected to run into upper-level westerlies in about 24 hours, the deep-layer shear is forecast to strengthen over the next couple of days. This increased shear and nearby dry air will likely cause Beryl to continue weakening, and the updated NHC intensity forecast now shows the cyclone weakening to a tropical depression by the time it reaches the eastern Caribbean Sea, if not sooner. Beryl is then likely to open up into a trough shortly after 48 hours, which is shown by all the global models. It should be noted that despite the expected weakening, some of the global models show deep convection reigniting due to upper-level divergence to the east of a trough, and even as an open wave the system will still likely produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across the Leeward Islands and portions of the Greater Antilles during the next several days. Key Messages: 1. Beryl has continued to weaken today, but there is still a chance of some islands in the Lesser Antilles receiving direct impacts from wind and rainfall, where tropical storm warnings and watches remain in effect. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will also be possible across the remainder of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through early next week. 2. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity, and confidence in the official intensity forecast is also lower than normal. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 12.7N 52.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 13.4N 55.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 14.6N 58.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 15.9N 62.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 17.3N 66.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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