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Hurricane Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2018-07-07 10:58:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 07 2018 ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022018 0900 UTC SAT JUL 07 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) X(19) X(19) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) X(24) X(24) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) X(20) X(20) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) X(18) X(18) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 8(34) X(34) X(34) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 41(51) X(51) X(51) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) X(16) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 46(48) 8(56) X(56) X(56) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 4(20) X(20) X(20) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 53(55) 3(58) X(58) X(58) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) 20(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBADOS 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 19(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GRENADA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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Hurricane Beryl Forecast Advisory Number 8
2018-07-07 10:57:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 07 2018 ZCZC MIATCMAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022018 0900 UTC SAT JUL 07 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. LUCIA. THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BARBADOS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. LUCIA * MARTINIQUE * GUADELOUPE * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BERYL... AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR OTHER ISLANDS LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 49.8W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 15SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 49.8W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 49.2W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 11.7N 51.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 12.6N 54.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 13.7N 57.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.8N 61.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.2N 70.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 49.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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Hurricane Beryl Graphics
2018-07-07 07:49:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 07 Jul 2018 05:49:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 07 Jul 2018 03:26:30 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Beryl (AT2/AL022018)
2018-07-07 07:49:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BERYL STILL HEADING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 2:00 AM AST Sat Jul 7 the center of Beryl was located near 10.9, -49.3 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane Beryl Public Advisory Number 7A
2018-07-07 07:49:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Sat Jul 07 2018 000 WTNT32 KNHC 070549 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 200 AM AST Sat Jul 07 2018 ...BERYL STILL HEADING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.9N 49.3W ABOUT 865 MI...1390 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Dominica A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Martinique * Guadeloupe * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Beryl, as additional watches could be required for other islands later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 10.9 North, longitude 49.3 West. Beryl is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest and a faster forward speed are expected on Saturday, with this motion continuing through early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will approach the Lesser Antilles over the weekend and cross the island chain late Sunday or Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Beryl could still be a hurricane when it reaches the Lesser Antilles late Sunday or Monday. Weakening is expected once Beryl reaches the eastern Caribbean Sea on Monday, but the system may not degenerate into an open trough until it reaches the vicinity of Hispaniola and the central Caribbean Sea on Tuesday or Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas by late Sunday or Monday. RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches through Sunday across the southern Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands, including Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, St. Lucia, and Barbados. Elsewhere across the northern Leeward and southern Windward Islands, rainfall amounts of 2 inches or less are expected. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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