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Tropical Storm Beryl Public Advisory Number 3
2018-07-06 04:31:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Jul 05 2018 000 WTNT32 KNHC 060231 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 1100 PM AST Thu Jul 05 2018 ...TINY BERYL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.4N 44.0W ABOUT 1215 MI...1955 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located near latitude 10.4 North, longitude 44.0 West. Beryl is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion should continue through tonight. A fast westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will remain east of the Lesser Antilles through Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Beryl could become a hurricane on Friday. Beryl is forecast to degenerate into a strong open trough just east of the Lesser Antilles over the weekend. Beryl is a tiny tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds only extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Beryl Forecast Advisory Number 3
2018-07-06 04:31:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 06 2018 000 WTNT22 KNHC 060231 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022018 0300 UTC FRI JUL 06 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 44.0W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 44.0W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 43.4W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 10.7N 45.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 11.2N 47.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 11.9N 49.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 12.7N 52.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.4N 59.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.4N 44.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2018-07-06 04:31:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUL 06 2018 000 FONT12 KNHC 060231 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022018 0300 UTC FRI JUL 06 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) X(23) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Tropical Storm Beryl Graphics
2018-07-05 22:20:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 05 Jul 2018 20:20:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 05 Jul 2018 20:20:17 GMT
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Tropical Storm Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2018-07-05 22:18:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 05 2018 000 FONT12 KNHC 052018 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022018 2100 UTC THU JUL 05 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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