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Hurricane Beryl Graphics
2018-07-07 04:43:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 07 Jul 2018 02:43:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 07 Jul 2018 02:43:08 GMT
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Hurricane Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 7
2018-07-07 04:40:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Jul 06 2018 000 WTNT42 KNHC 070240 TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 1100 PM AST Fri Jul 06 2018 While Beryl continues to produce a cluster of convection near the center, the system appears a little less organized than earlier. In addition, there are no recent microwave overpasses showing an eye under the overcast. The various satellite intensity estimates are unchanged since the previous advisory, so the initial intensity is held at 70 kt. However, it is possible that this is a bit generous given the observed decay of the cloud pattern. The hurricane continues moving westward or 280/12. The track guidance insists that a turn toward the west-northwest and an increase in forward speed should occur in the next 12-24 h as Beryl continues to be steered by the strong subtropical ridge to the north. The new NHC forecast again follows this scenario, but it lies on the south side of the guidance envelope due to current trends and the overall northeast bias that the track guidance has shown so far. The new NHC track has the center near the Lesser Antilles in about 48 h, over the north central Caribbean Sea in about 72 h, and near eastern Cuba in about 96 h - if the system actually survives that long. Beryl is expected to remain in a light vertical wind shear environment for 36 h or so, then encounter steadily increasing westerly shear as it moves into the Caribbean Sea. The intensity guidance forecasts less strengthening during the time of favorable conditions than previously, and based on this first part of the intensity forecast is lowered slightly from that of the previous advisory. Steady to rapid weakening should occur over the eastern Caribbean due to stronger shear, and the current forecast has Beryl weakening to a tropical wave after 96 h. An alternative scenario, supported by the large-scale models, is that Beryl weakens to a tropical wave near the 72-h point. The technical issue with the NHC wind speed probabilities text products at land locations has been resolved. The wind speed probability values provided in the text product, the graphics on the the NHC website at hurricanes.gov, and the publicly disseminated grid files will all correctly reflect the reduced probabilities over land. Key Messages: 1. Beryl is forecast to be a hurricane when it moves through the Lesser Antilles Sunday night or Monday, and the chance of some islands receiving direct impacts from wind and rainfall are increasing. Hurricane and tropical storm watches are in effect for some of the countries in the Lesser Antilles, and additional watches could be required for other islands early Saturday. 2. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity, and confidence in the official intensity forecast is also lower than normal. Rapid changes in intensity, both up and down, that are difficult to predict are possible during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 10.9N 48.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 11.3N 50.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 12.3N 53.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 13.3N 56.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 14.4N 60.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 16.5N 68.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 19.5N 76.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Hurricane Beryl (AT2/AL022018)
2018-07-07 04:40:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NO CHANGE IN THE STRENGTH OF BERYL AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Jul 6 the center of Beryl was located near 10.9, -48.9 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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at2al022018
Hurricane Beryl Forecast Advisory Number 7
2018-07-07 04:40:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 07 2018 000 WTNT22 KNHC 070240 TCMAT2 HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022018 0300 UTC SAT JUL 07 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MARTINIQUE * GUADELOUPE * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BERYL... AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR OTHER ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 48.9W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 48.9W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 48.3W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 11.3N 50.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 5SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 12.3N 53.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 13.3N 56.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.4N 60.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.5N 68.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 19.5N 76.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.9N 48.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Beryl Public Advisory Number 7
2018-07-07 04:40:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Jul 06 2018 000 WTNT32 KNHC 070240 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 1100 PM AST Fri Jul 06 2018 ...NO CHANGE IN THE STRENGTH OF BERYL AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.9N 48.9W ABOUT 890 MI...1430 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Dominica A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Martinique * Guadeloupe * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Beryl, as additional watches could be required for other islands later tonight or early Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 10.9 North, longitude 48.9 West. Beryl is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest and a faster forward speed are expected on Saturday, with this motion continuing through early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will approach the Lesser Antilles over the weekend and cross the island chain late Sunday or Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Beryl could still be a hurricane when it reaches the Lesser Antilles late Sunday or Monday. Weakening is expected once Beryl reaches the eastern Caribbean Sea on Monday, but the system may not degenerate into an open trough until it reaches the vicinity of Hispaniola and the central Caribbean Sea on Tuesday or Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas by late Sunday or Monday. RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches through Sunday across the southern Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands, including Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, St. Lucia, and Barbados. Elsewhere across the northern Leeward and southern Windward Islands, rainfall amounts of 2 inches or less are expected. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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