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Hurricane Beryl Public Advisory Number 6
2018-07-06 22:45:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Jul 06 2018 000 WTNT32 KNHC 062044 CCA TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 6...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 500 PM AST Fri Jul 06 2018 Corrected to indicate the time of intermediate advisory issuance at 800 PM AST and to remove extraneous text in the first paragraph of the Discussion and Outlook section. ...MINIATURE BERYL SPEEDING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.6N 47.8W ABOUT 965 MI...1555 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Watch for Dominica. The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Martinique, Guadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Dominica A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Martinique * Guadeloupe * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Beryl, as additional watches could be required for other islands tonight or early Saturday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 47.8 West. Beryl is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A faster westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to begin over the weekend and continue through early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will approach the Lesser Antilles over the weekend and cross the island chain late Sunday or Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Beryl could still be a hurricane when it reaches the Lesser Antilles late Sunday or Monday. Weakening is expected once Beryl reaches the eastern Caribbean Sea on Monday, but the system may not degenerate into an open trough until it reaches the vicinity of Hispaniola and the central Caribbean Sea. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas by late Sunday or Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Beryl Graphics
2018-07-06 22:43:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Jul 2018 20:43:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Jul 2018 20:43:27 GMT
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Hurricane Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 6
2018-07-06 22:41:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Jul 06 2018 000 WTNT42 KNHC 062041 TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 500 PM AST Fri Jul 06 2018 Beryl has lost its tiny pinhole eye from earlier this morning, but the system continues to produce a compact area of deep convection near the center. Since Dvorak estimates have changed little from six hours ago, the initial intensity will remain 70 kt for this advisory. Global model fields continue to show an upper-level anticyclone moving westward in tandem with the hurricane for the next 48 hours or so, which would keep the vertical shear low enough to allow for some intensification. After 48 hours, however, the upper-level pattern is expected to evolve to southerlies or westerlies over the system, which would increase the shear and cause weakening. Given the seemingly favorable environment for the next 2 days, the NHC intensity forecast continues to lie along the upper bound of the guidance. After 48 hours, the intensity forecast is closer to the HCCA model and the intensity consensus. It bears repeating that the intensity forecast remains highly uncertain given Beryl's small size, and the cyclone could just as easily dissipate into an open wave sooner than indicated in the official forecast. The hurricane is moving westward, or 270/13 kt, and may have actually lost a little latitude today. Given the more southerly initial position, the track guidance suite has shifted south accordingly, and the new NHC track has been adjusted in that direction as well, lying between the model consensus aids and the southern edge of the solutions. Additional southward adjustments to the forecast track are likely if Beryl does not gain latitude soon. Given the larger-than-normal uncertainties associated with Beryl's future track and intensity, the governments and meteorological services of several of the countries in the Lesser Antilles have elected to issue tropical storm or hurricane watches for their islands, sooner than the typical 48-hour threshold for the onset of tropical-storm-force winds. Please refer to products issued by the meteorological services of those respective countries for additional information. Due to a technical issue, the wind speed probability values at land locations in the wind speed probability text product are too high and do not reflect reduced probabilities that are expected over land. The wind speed probability values provided in the graphics on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov, and in the publicly disseminated grid files do correctly reflect the reduced probabilities over land. As a result, users should refer to the NHC website graphics and gridded products instead of the text product for the most accurate wind speed probability values until this problem is resolved. Key Messages: 1. Beryl is expected to be a hurricane when it moves through the Lesser Antilles Sunday night or Monday, and the chance of some islands receiving direct impacts from wind and rainfall are increasing. Hurricane and tropical storm watches have been issued by some of the countries in the Lesser Antilles, and additional watches could be required for other islands tonight or early Saturday. 2. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity, and confidence in the official intensity forecast is also lower than normal. Rapid changes in intensity, both up and down, that are difficult to predict are possible during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 10.6N 47.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 11.1N 49.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 11.9N 51.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 12.9N 54.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 13.8N 58.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 16.1N 66.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 18.5N 75.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2018-07-06 22:41:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 06 2018 000 FONT12 KNHC 062041 PWSAT2 HURRICANE BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022018 2100 UTC FRI JUL 06 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) X(25) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) X(29) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) X(36) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) X(17) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 26(31) X(31) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 8(30) X(30) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 9(25) X(25) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 4(22) X(22) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 2(24) X(24) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 1(19) X(19) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 2(30) X(30) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 1(29) X(29) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) X(21) X(21) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) X(30) X(30) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 46(49) X(49) X(49) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 63(63) X(63) X(63) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 1(28) X(28) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 65(71) X(71) X(71) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) X(35) X(35) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 64(73) X(73) X(73) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 39(41) X(41) X(41) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) X(19) X(19) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 44(52) X(52) X(52) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) X(26) X(26) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) X(27) X(27) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 20(45) X(45) X(45) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 15(23) X(23) X(23) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Beryl Forecast Advisory Number 6
2018-07-06 22:40:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 06 2018 000 WTNT22 KNHC 062040 TCMAT2 HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022018 2100 UTC FRI JUL 06 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR DOMINICA. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MARTINIQUE... GUADELOUPE... ST. MARTIN... AND ST. BARTHELEMY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MARTINIQUE * GUADELOUPE * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BERYL... AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR OTHER ISLANDS TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 47.8W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB EYE DIAMETER 5 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 47.8W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 47.3W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 11.1N 49.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 5SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 11.9N 51.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 12.9N 54.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 13.8N 58.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.1N 66.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 18.5N 75.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 47.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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