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Hurricane Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2018-07-07 04:40:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 07 2018 000 FONT12 KNHC 070240 PWSAT2 HURRICANE BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022018 0300 UTC SAT JUL 07 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) X(32) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 30(37) X(37) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) X(16) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) X(17) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) X(20) X(20) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 1(17) X(17) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) X(25) X(25) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) X(25) X(25) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) X(16) X(16) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) X(24) X(24) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 20(20) 24(44) X(44) X(44) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 56(62) X(62) X(62) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) X(27) X(27) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) 28(70) X(70) X(70) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 21(34) X(34) X(34) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 55(57) 18(75) X(75) X(75) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) 26(26) 15(41) X(41) X(41) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) X(17) X(17) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 40(42) 11(53) X(53) X(53) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 10(26) X(26) X(26) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 7(26) X(26) X(26) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 40(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Beryl Graphics
2018-07-07 01:37:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Jul 2018 23:37:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Jul 2018 21:25:55 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Beryl (AT2/AL022018)
2018-07-07 01:37:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BERYL CONTINUING WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 8:00 PM AST Fri Jul 6 the center of Beryl was located near 10.6, -48.3 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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at2al022018
Hurricane Beryl Public Advisory Number 6A
2018-07-07 01:37:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Fri Jul 06 2018 000 WTNT32 KNHC 062337 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 800 PM AST Fri Jul 06 2018 ...BERYL CONTINUING WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.6N 48.3W ABOUT 925 MI...1490 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Dominica A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Martinique * Guadeloupe * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Beryl, as additional watches could be required for other islands later tonight or early Saturday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 48.3 West. Beryl is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A faster westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to begin over the weekend and continue through early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will approach the Lesser Antilles over the weekend and cross the island chain late Sunday or Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Beryl could still be a hurricane when it reaches the Lesser Antilles late Sunday or Monday. Weakening is expected once Beryl reaches the eastern Caribbean Sea on Monday, but the system may not degenerate into an open trough until it reaches the vicinity of Hispaniola and the central Caribbean Sea. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas by late Sunday or Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Hurricane Beryl (AT2/AL022018)
2018-07-06 22:45:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...MINIATURE BERYL SPEEDING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Jul 6 the center of Beryl was located near 10.6, -47.8 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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