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Hurricane Beryl Graphics
2018-07-06 16:38:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Jul 2018 14:38:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Jul 2018 14:38:01 GMT
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Hurricane Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 5
2018-07-06 16:36:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Jul 06 2018 000 WTNT42 KNHC 061436 TCDAT2 Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 1100 AM AST Fri Jul 06 2018 Beryl is a compact hurricane that had a pinhole eye for a few hours before more recently becoming cloud filled again. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were T4.0/65 kt at 12Z, but the Dvorak technique is constrained by width requirements of the convective cloud tops. That may not be applicable in this case given Beryl's extremely small size. By disregarding the width constraints, TAFB was able to provide a data-T number of T4.5/77 kt. As a compromise, the initial intensity is raised to 70 kt. Beryl has not gained much latitude and is still moving quickly westward with a 12-hour motion estimate of 275/13 kt. Mid-level ridging over the subtropical Atlantic is expected to steer Beryl on a westward to west-northwestward course through the forecast period. An acceleration is forecast to begin in 36-48 hours once Beryl becomes situated to the south of the core of the mid-level anticyclone. Some of the track models have already shown a northward bias since the cyclone formed yesterday, and the updated NHC track forecast is therefore south of the typically better- performing models. This new forecast is not too different from the previous NHC track and is also just south of the HCCA model and the various model consensus aids. Despite the SHIPS model diagnostics showing increasing shear in a few days, global model fields show a well-defined upper-level anticyclone following the system at least for the next 3 days. Although Beryl's expected acceleration may contribute to some increased shear, the SHIPS model is also probably calculating deep-layer shear over too large an area to accurately capture the shear isolated to the cyclone's scale. Given that, the NHC intensity forecast is at or above nearly all of the guidance through 48 hours, which is also higher than what we've been depicting in previous forecasts. Needless to say, it's becoming more likely that Beryl will maintain hurricane strength when it reaches the Lesser Antilles between 48 and 72 hours. The cyclone is also now likely to persist beyond the 72-hour forecast point, and a 96-hour point has therefore been added to the official forecast, showing Beryl near or over Hispaniola by day 4. By that point, either increased shear or the terrain of Hispaniola would likely lead to dissipation. But we shall see. Key Messages: 1. Beryl is now expected to be a hurricane when it moves through the Lesser Antilles Sunday night or Monday, and the chance of some islands receiving direct impacts from wind and rainfall are increasing. However, Beryl is a very small hurricane, and it is too early to determine exactly where those impacts will occur. Hurricane watches could be needed for portions of the Lesser Antilles as soon as tonight. 2. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity, and confidence in the official intensity forecast is also lower than normal. Rapid changes in intensity, both up and down, that are difficult to predict are possible during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 10.7N 46.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 11.3N 47.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 12.2N 50.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 13.3N 53.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 14.2N 56.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 16.2N 64.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 18.5N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA 120H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Hurricane Beryl (AT2/AL022018)
2018-07-06 16:36:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BRAZEN BERYL A LITTLE STRONGER... ...NOW FORECAST TO STILL BE A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Jul 6 the center of Beryl was located near 10.7, -46.5 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane Beryl Public Advisory Number 5
2018-07-06 16:36:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Jul 06 2018 000 WTNT32 KNHC 061435 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 1100 AM AST Fri Jul 06 2018 ...BRAZEN BERYL A LITTLE STRONGER... ...NOW FORECAST TO STILL BE A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.7N 46.5W ABOUT 1045 MI...1685 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Beryl, as hurricane watches could be needed for some of the islands by tonight. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 10.7 North, longitude 46.5 West. Beryl is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A faster westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to begin over the weekend and continue through early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will approach the Lesser Antilles over the weekend and cross the island chain late Sunday or Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Beryl is expected to still be a hurricane when it reaches the Lesser Antilles late Sunday or Monday. Weakening is expected once Beryl reaches the eastern Caribbean Sea on Monday, but the system may not degenerate into an open trough until it reaches the vicinity of Hispaniola and the central Caribbean Sea. Beryl is a compact hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2018-07-06 16:36:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 06 2018 000 FONT12 KNHC 061435 PWSAT2 HURRICANE BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022018 1500 UTC FRI JUL 06 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) X(22) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) X(33) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) X(34) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) X(31) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 45(46) X(46) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 35(49) X(49) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 36(44) X(44) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 26(41) X(41) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 20(42) X(42) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 13(34) X(34) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 12(46) X(46) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) X(15) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 3(31) X(31) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 44(44) 1(45) X(45) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) X(34) X(34) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 47(47) X(47) X(47) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) X(16) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 64(65) X(65) X(65) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) X(29) X(29) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 55(55) 3(58) X(58) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 1(27) X(27) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 67(68) X(68) X(68) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) X(36) X(36) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 54(56) 1(57) X(57) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) X(29) X(29) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) X(29) X(29) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) X(22) X(22) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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