je.st
news
Tag: beryl
Hurricane Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2018-07-06 10:54:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 06 2018 000 FONT12 KNHC 060853 PWSAT2 HURRICANE BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022018 0900 UTC FRI JUL 06 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) X(31) X(31) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) X(38) X(38) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) X(30) X(30) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tags: number
speed
wind
hurricane
Hurricane Beryl Forecast Advisory Number 4
2018-07-06 10:53:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 06 2018 000 WTNT22 KNHC 060853 TCMAT2 HURRICANE BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022018 0900 UTC FRI JUL 06 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BERYL. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 45.1W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB EYE DIAMETER 5 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 45.1W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 44.6W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 11.0N 46.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 5SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 11.7N 48.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 5SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 12.7N 51.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 5SE 5SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.6N 54.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 15.4N 61.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 45.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tags: number
advisory
forecast
hurricane
Tropical Storm Beryl Graphics
2018-07-06 04:34:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Jul 2018 02:34:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Jul 2018 03:25:50 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
beryl
Tropical Storm Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-07-06 04:31:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Jul 05 2018 000 WTNT42 KNHC 060231 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 1100 PM AST Thu Jul 05 2018 Tiny Beryl has maintained a small ball of convection near the center except for a brief period around 2300 UTC when a tight curved band was exposed, revealing 10- to 11-tenths banding. Passive microwave satellite data during the past 6 hours have also indicated 5-nmi-diameter eye exists underneath the CDO feature. Given the small size of the cyclone, which can quickly adjust to convective changes, and a Dvorak satellite estimate of T3.5/55 kt from SAB, the advisory intensity has been increased to 55 kt. The initial motion estimate is 275/12 kt. Most of the latest model guidance has made a pronounced southward shift, which is significant since all of the models have displayed a distinct right-of-track, poleward bias over the past 48 hours. The ECMWF has had the greatest poleward bias, and is now the northernmost solution in the model suite. The GFS, HWRF, and UKMET are now clustered along the southern edge of the guidance envelope, with the consensus models somewhere in between those latter models and the ECMWF. Given the very small size of Beryl, I am having difficulty envisioning the cyclone moving into the strong subtropical ridge situated to its north and gaining as much latitude as the ECMWF has been and is still indicating. As a result, the new NHC forecast track has been shifted south of the previous advisory track, but not as far south as the GFS-HRWF-UKMET consensus, and lies a tad south of the HCCA and FSSE solutions. Water vapor and model moisture analyses indicate that Beryl has been able to maintain a buffer between it and the very dry, stable air just to its north, due in large part to the deep, southerly moisture fetch coming up from the equatorial region. This pattern is forecast by most of the global models to continue for at least the next 48 hours. That favorable environment, coupled with forecast low vertical wind shear conditions of near 5 kt for the next 24 hours, should allow Beryl to achieve hurricane status by late Friday. By 72 hours when Beryl will be approaching the Lesser Antilles, the shear is forecast to increase from the west and northwest at 20-25 kt, which is expected to induce rapid weakening. All of the global models continue to show the cyclone opening up into a tropical wave shortly after 72 hours, which is what the current forecast continues to depict in order to maintain continuity with the previous advisory track. However, only a slight delay in the onset of the strong shear conditions could result in Beryl maintaining tropical cyclone status when it moves across the Lesser Antilles on Sunday. Even though Beryl is expected to dissipate just east of the Lesser Antilles early next week, the remnant tropical wave will continue moving quickly westward and will likely bring locally heavy rains and strong gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands on Sunday and Monday. Key Messages: 1. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity. Confidence in the official intensity forecast is also much lower than normal. Rapid changes in intensity, both up and down, that are difficult to predict are possible during the next couple of days. 2. While Beryl is still expected to dissipate as a tropical cyclone by Monday before reaching the Lesser Antilles, there will likely be some rain and wind impacts on those islands early next week. Residents there should monitor products from their local weather office for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 10.4N 44.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 10.7N 45.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 11.2N 47.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 11.9N 49.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 12.7N 52.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 14.4N 59.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Summary for Tropical Storm Beryl (AT2/AL022018)
2018-07-06 04:31:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TINY BERYL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Jul 5 the center of Beryl was located near 10.4, -44.0 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
beryl
Sites : [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] next »