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Tropical Storm Beryl Public Advisory Number 2
2018-07-05 22:18:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Jul 05 2018 000 WTNT32 KNHC 052018 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 500 PM AST Thu Jul 05 2018 ...TINY BERYL STRENGTHENING OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.3N 42.8W ABOUT 1295 MI...2080 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located near latitude 10.3 North, longitude 42.8 West. Beryl is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A fast westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will remain east of the Lesser Antilles through Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Beryl could become a hurricane by Friday or Saturday. Beryl is forecast to degenerate into an open trough just east of the Lesser Antilles over the weekend. Beryl is a tiny tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Beryl Forecast Advisory Number 2
2018-07-05 22:18:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 05 2018 000 WTNT22 KNHC 052018 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022018 2100 UTC THU JUL 05 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 42.8W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 42.8W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 42.3W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 10.8N 44.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 11.4N 46.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 12.1N 48.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 13.0N 51.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.5N 58.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.3N 42.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-07-05 22:18:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Jul 05 2018 000 WTNT42 KNHC 052018 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 500 PM AST Thu Jul 05 2018 Beryl has been a bit of a surprise today, which is not uncommon for tiny tropical cyclones such as itself. A 1724 UTC SSMI microwave pass and a 1853 UTC SSMI/S pass both revealed that the cyclone had developed a well-defined 5 nmi-wide mid-level eye, and a dimple has been apparent in visible satellite imagery. It's usually difficult to get a good handle on the intensity of these types of cyclones given their small size, but data-T numbers from TAFB and SAB are a consensus T3.0. The initial intensity is therefore raised to 45 kt, but there is a lot of uncertainty in this estimate. If the initial intensity is uncertain, the future intensity is even more of a quandary. Despite being surrounded by abundant dry air, Beryl has apparently been able to isolate itself and possibly moisten the near-storm environment while located in an area of low shear. Since the shear is expected to remain quite low for the next 36 hours or so, and small cyclones like Beryl often have a tendency to strengthen quickly over a short period of time, continued intensification appears likely for the next day or so. The updated NHC intensity forecast most closely follows the statistical- dynamical guidance, which lies at the upper end of the guidance envelope, and brings Beryl to hurricane strength within 36 hours. After that time, increasing westerly shear, partially due to Beryl accelerating toward the west, is expected to cause weakening. In addition, every global model shows the cyclone opening up into a tropical wave in 72-96 hours, which is what the NHC forecast continues to depict. It cannot be stressed enough, however, that this is a low confidence forecast. The one stable part of the forecast is Beryl's future track. The new guidance has not changed much from the previous forecast cycle, and it continues to show Beryl slowing down a bit during the next 24 hours, followed by a west-northwestward acceleration in 48-72 hours due to a strengthening ridge to the north. The updated NHC track forecast is just a bit south of the previous one and is closest to the HCCA and Florida State Superensemble guidance. Even though Beryl is expected to dissipate just east of the Lesser Antilles early next week, the remnant tropical wave will continue moving quickly westward and will likely bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands on Sunday and Monday. Key Messages: 1. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual uncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity. Confidence in the official intensity forecast is also much lower than normal. Rapid changes in intensity, both up and down, that are difficult to predict are possible during the next couple of days. 2. While Beryl is still expected to dissipate as a tropical cyclone by Monday before reaching the Lesser Antilles, there will likely be some rain and wind impacts on those islands early next week. Residents there should monitor products from their local weather office for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 10.3N 42.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 10.8N 44.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 11.4N 46.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 12.1N 48.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 13.0N 51.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 14.5N 58.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm Beryl (AT2/AL022018)
2018-07-05 20:30:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BERYL... As of 2:30 PM AST Thu Jul 5 the center of Beryl was located near 10.3, -42.3 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Beryl Update Statement
2018-07-05 20:30:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 230 PM AST Thu Jul 05 2018 000 WTNT62 KNHC 051830 TCUAT2 Tropical Storm Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 230 PM AST Thu Jul 05 2018 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BERYL... Satellite imagery indicates that the tropical depression has strengthened and is now Tropical Storm Beryl. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. An updated intensity forecast will be provided with the 500 PM AST (2100 UTC) advisory. SUMMARY OF 230 PM AST...1830 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.3N 42.3W ABOUT 1330 MI...2140 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brennan/Berg
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