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Post-Tropical Cyclone LORENZO Forecast Discussion Number 13
2013-10-24 16:50:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU OCT 24 2013 000 WTNT43 KNHC 241450 TCDAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 1100 AM AST THU OCT 24 2013 DRY AIR AND NORTHERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON LORENZO. THE SYSTEM HAS NOT HAD ANY ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR OVER 12 HOURS AND HAS BECOME A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. AS A RESULT...LORENZO HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW AND THIS WILL BE THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT...IN ACCORDANCE WITH A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS. ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...DRY AIR AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD CAUSE THE LOW TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LOW IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE HEADING NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION AS IT REMAINS WITHIN LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 30.2N 47.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 25/0000Z 31.0N 46.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 25/1200Z 32.0N 45.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/0000Z 33.0N 44.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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lorenzo
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone LORENZO (AT3/AL132013)
2013-10-24 16:50:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LORENZO DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Oct 24 the center of LORENZO was located near 30.2, -47.6 with movement NE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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lorenzo
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Post-Tropical Cyclone LORENZO Public Advisory Number 13
2013-10-24 16:50:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU OCT 24 2013 000 WTNT33 KNHC 241450 TCPAT3 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENZO ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 1100 AM AST THU OCT 24 2013 ...LORENZO DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.2N 47.6W ABOUT 1025 MI...1650 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.6 WEST. THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY LATE FRIDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON LORENZO. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone LORENZO Forecast Advisory Number 13
2013-10-24 16:50:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 24 2013 000 WTNT23 KNHC 241450 TCMAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 1500 UTC THU OCT 24 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 47.6W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 47.6W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 47.7W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.0N 46.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 32.0N 45.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 33.0N 44.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.2N 47.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON LORENZO. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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lorenzo
Post-Tropical Cyclone LORENZO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2013-10-24 16:50:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 24 2013 000 FONT13 KNHC 241450 PWSAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013 1500 UTC THU OCT 24 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 5 21 24 NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 75 59 52 NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 21 20 23 NA NA NA NA HURRICANE X X 1 NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X X 1 NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 25KT 20KT 20KT NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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lorenzo
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