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Tropical Storm HOWARD Forecast Advisory Number 8
2016-08-02 10:48:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 02 2016 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 020848 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 0900 UTC TUE AUG 02 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 127.6W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 127.6W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 127.0W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.3N 129.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 20.5N 132.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.4N 135.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.1N 137.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.9N 143.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 23.2N 149.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 23.2N 154.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 127.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm HOWARD Graphics
2016-08-02 05:07:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Aug 2016 02:36:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Aug 2016 03:04:34 GMT
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Tropical Storm HOWARD Forecast Discussion Number 7
2016-08-02 04:36:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON AUG 01 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 020235 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 800 PM PDT MON AUG 01 2016 Visible imagery and a 01/2038 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass show that Howard's center of circulation has become exposed to the west of the cloud canopy. Additionally, the entire western half of the cyclone has become devoid of deep convective banding. It appears that modest westerly shear is impinging on the storm and undercutting the diffluent flow aloft. A blend of the Final-T numbers from both TAFB and SAB yields an initial intensity of 45 kt for this advisory. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 12 hours while Howard remains over SSTs greater than 26C. By the 24 hour period, the cyclone is expected to move over cooler sub-24 deg C water. Cooler SSTs and increasing southwesterly shear should induce steady weakening, resulting in Howard degenerating into a post-tropical cyclone in 48 hours, and a remnant low by day 3. After that time, the large-scale models show the remnant low degenerating into a trough of low pressure. The intensity forecast is a little above the previous forecast, but is lower than the IVCN intensity consensus. Satellite position estimates suggest that Howard is moving toward the west-northwest, or 295 degrees, at about 12 kt. Howard is expected to move in a general west-northwestward motion during the next 72 hours along the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge located to the north of the cyclone. Through the remainder of the period, the cyclone is forecast to become a shallow remnant low and turn toward the west following the low-level easterly tradewind flow. The official NHC forecast is quite similar to the previous one, and is hedged toward the TVCN multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 17.7N 126.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 18.7N 128.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 20.0N 130.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 21.1N 133.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 22.0N 136.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 05/0000Z 22.9N 142.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0000Z 23.3N 147.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0000Z 23.2N 152.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Storm HOWARD (EP4/EP092016)
2016-08-02 04:35:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HOWARD MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC... ...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Aug 1 the center of HOWARD was located near 17.7, -126.4 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm HOWARD Public Advisory Number 7
2016-08-02 04:35:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON AUG 01 2016 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 020234 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HOWARD ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 800 PM PDT MON AUG 01 2016 ...HOWARD MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC... ...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 126.4W ABOUT 1125 MI...1815 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Howard was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 126.4 West. Howard is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion with a slight increase in forward speed is forecast during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 12 hours or so, but weakening should commence by Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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