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Summary for Tropical Storm HOWARD (EP4/EP092016)

2016-08-01 16:42:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...HOWARD STRENGTHENING...BUT WEAKENING LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Aug 1 the center of HOWARD was located near 16.7, -123.6 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm HOWARD Public Advisory Number 5

2016-08-01 16:42:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT MON AUG 01 2016 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 011442 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HOWARD ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 800 AM PDT MON AUG 01 2016 ...HOWARD STRENGTHENING...BUT WEAKENING LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 123.6W ABOUT 985 MI...1590 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Howard was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 123.6 West. Howard is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, but weakening should commence by Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

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Tropical Storm HOWARD Forecast Advisory Number 5

2016-08-01 16:42:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 01 2016 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 011442 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 1500 UTC MON AUG 01 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 123.6W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 123.6W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 123.1W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 17.5N 125.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.7N 128.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.9N 130.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 21.0N 133.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.3N 139.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 22.9N 144.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 22.9N 150.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 123.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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Tropical Storm HOWARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2016-08-01 16:42:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 01 2016 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 011442 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 1500 UTC MON AUG 01 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HOWARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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