je.st

Home › howard

Tag: howard

Tropical Storm HOWARD Forecast Discussion Number 4

2016-08-01 10:38:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT MON AUG 01 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 010838 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 200 AM PDT MON AUG 01 2016 The cloud pattern of the cyclone has improved since the previous advisory with the low-level center now embedded within a developing central dense overcast feature. Satellite intensity estimates are T3.0/45 kt from TAFB, T2.5/35 kt from SAB, and T2.7/39 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been increased to 35 kt for this advisory, and the cyclone has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Howard, the eighth named storm of the 2016 season and the eighth named storm during the past 30 days as well. The initial motion remains 295/10 kt. There are no significant changes to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Howard is expected to move in a general west-northwestward motion for the next 72 hours along the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge located to the north of the cyclone. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to become a shallow remnant low over much cooler water and be steered westward by the low-level easterly tradewind flow. The new NHC forecast track is essentially just an extension of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus models and down the middle of the tightly packed guidance envelope. Additional strengthening is forecast today and tonight while Howard remains over SSTs greater than 25.5 deg C. By 36-48 hours, the cyclone will be moving over sub-24 deg C water and into some modest southwesterly vertical wind shear. That combination of unfavorable conditions will induce steady weakening, resulting in Howard degenerating into a post-tropical cyclone by 48 hours and beyond. The official intensity forecast is similar to previous forecast, and closely follows the SHIPS and IVCN consensus intensity models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 16.1N 122.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 16.8N 124.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 18.0N 127.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 19.1N 129.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 20.2N 132.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 04/0600Z 21.9N 137.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/0600Z 22.6N 143.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/0600Z 22.7N 149.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart

Tags: number discussion howard storm

Tropical Storm HOWARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

2016-08-01 10:33:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 01 2016 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 010833 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 0900 UTC MON AUG 01 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HOWARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Tags: number speed wind howard

Summary for Tropical Storm HOWARD (EP4/EP092016)

2016-08-01 10:33:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE EIGHTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2016 HURRICANE SEASON... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Aug 1 the center of HOWARD was located near 16.1, -122.9 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tags: summary howard storm tropical

Tropical Storm HOWARD Public Advisory Number 4

2016-08-01 10:33:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT MON AUG 01 2016 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 010833 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HOWARD ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 200 AM PDT MON AUG 01 2016 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE EIGHTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2016 HURRICANE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 122.9W ABOUT 965 MI...1555 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Howard was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 122.9 West. Howard is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast today and Tuesday morning. Gradual weakening is expected to begin by Tuesday night and Wednesday when Howard moves over cooler water. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

Tags: number public howard storm