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Tropical Storm HOWARD Public Advisory Number 12
2016-08-03 10:45:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED AUG 03 2016 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 030844 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HOWARD ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 200 AM PDT WED AUG 03 2016 ...HOWARD WEAKENING OVER COOL WATER... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 132.6W ABOUT 1465 MI...2360 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Howard was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 132.6 West. Howard is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion should continue through today. A turn toward the west is expected by Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Howard is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm HOWARD Graphics
2016-08-03 05:00:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Aug 2016 02:58:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Aug 2016 02:59:33 GMT
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Tropical Storm HOWARD Forecast Discussion Number 11
2016-08-03 04:57:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 030257 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016 Howard is still displaying some convection this evening, but the extent and organization of the convection is diminishing. Correspondingly, the Dvorak classifications are dropping and a blend of the TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS-ADT values indicate the intensity has dropped to around 40-45 kt. 45 kt is used as the initial intensity, though this may be generous given Howard's recent trends. The initial position of Howard has significant uncertainty, as there have been no microwave images available nor has the last-light visible imagery been very illuminating. The initial motion is assessed as 13 kt toward the west-northwest, as the system is primarily being steered by a mid-level ridge to its northeast. The track models are tightly clustered and suggest a gradual turn toward the west at about the same forward speed during the next few days. The NHC track forecast is nearly the same as that from the previous advisory and is based upon the TVCN track model consensus. While the vertical shear should remain relatively low over Howard during the next day and a half, the SSTs that Howard will traverse should get quite cool and the atmosphere dry and stable. At about two days, the SSTs become lukewarm but the shear becomes prohibitive for intensification. Thus it is expected that Howard will gradually weaken, and in about two days lose its deep convection and become a post-tropical cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is based upon the LGEM and SHIPS statistical/dynamical methods, as the three dynamical hurricane models - HWRF, GFDL, and COAMPS - all unrealistically re-intensify Howard between days three and five. This official forecast calls for slightly weaker intensities than those indicated in the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 20.1N 131.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 20.9N 133.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 21.7N 136.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 22.3N 138.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 22.6N 141.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 06/0000Z 23.0N 147.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0000Z 23.0N 152.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0000Z 23.0N 157.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Tropical Storm HOWARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2016-08-03 04:57:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 03 2016 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 030256 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 0300 UTC WED AUG 03 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HOWARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Summary for Tropical Storm HOWARD (EP4/EP092016)
2016-08-03 04:56:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HOWARD GRADUALLY WEAKENING... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 2 the center of HOWARD was located near 20.1, -131.3 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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