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Tropical Storm HOWARD Graphics
2016-08-03 10:46:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Aug 2016 08:46:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Aug 2016 08:45:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm HOWARD Forecast Discussion Number 12
2016-08-03 10:46:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED AUG 03 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 030845 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 200 AM PDT WED AUG 03 2016 Deep convection associated with Howard has continued to decrease and become separated from the low-level center overnight. Several microwave overpasses since the previous advisory and recent ASCAT data have been extremely helpful in locating the center, which is displaced well south of the remaining area of cold cloud tops. The initial wind speed has been reduced to 40 kt, which is based on the scatterometer data that revealed 35 to 40 kt winds over the northeastern portion of the circulation. Howard is moving west-northwestward or 290/13 kt. The track forecast philosophy remains the same as the previous advisory. The tropical storm should move west-northwestward to the south of a subtropical ridge today, then turn westward by Thursday as the cyclone weakens and comes under the influence of the low-level easterly trades. The model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, but has generally shifted southward at days 4 and 5. The NHC track has been adjusted accordingly, but it remains near the middle of the guidance envelope. The tropical storm should continue to weaken during the next day or so while it moves over cool water and into a drier and more stable environment. Howard is forecast to become a remnant low in 24 to 36 hours, but this could occur sooner if organized deep convection does not redevelop later today. The cyclone will be move over slightly warm waters after 48 hours, but increasing shear and unfavorable thermodynamic conditions should prevent restrengthening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 20.3N 132.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 21.0N 134.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 21.7N 137.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 22.1N 140.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0600Z 22.3N 143.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0600Z 22.5N 148.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/0600Z 22.3N 153.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/0600Z 21.8N 158.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm HOWARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2016-08-03 10:45:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 03 2016 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 030845 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 0900 UTC WED AUG 03 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HOWARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm HOWARD Forecast Advisory Number 12
2016-08-03 10:45:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 03 2016 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 030844 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 0900 UTC WED AUG 03 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 132.6W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 45SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 132.6W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 131.9W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 21.0N 134.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.7N 137.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 22.1N 140.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.3N 143.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.5N 148.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 22.3N 153.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 21.8N 158.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 132.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Storm HOWARD (EP4/EP092016)
2016-08-03 10:45:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HOWARD WEAKENING OVER COOL WATER... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 3 the center of HOWARD was located near 20.3, -132.6 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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