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Tropical Storm HOWARD Graphics
2016-08-02 16:38:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Aug 2016 14:38:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Aug 2016 14:37:34 GMT
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Tropical Storm HOWARD Forecast Discussion Number 9
2016-08-02 16:37:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 021437 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016 Howard's convective structure has not changed much since the previous advisory with the low-level center located just inside the southern edge of a ragged central dense overcast. The initial intensity remains 50 kt, which is supported by a blend of CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. Howard's center is now moving over sea surface temperatures between 25-26C, and it should reach sub-24C waters in about 24 hours. Vertical shear, on the other hand, probably won't be too hostile for another 2 to 3 days. Therefore, gradual weakening is forecast to begin in 12-24 hours and should continue through the end of the forecast period. The intensity guidance is holding Howard's intensity up a little longer compared to previous cycles, and the updated NHC intensity forecast follows this trend beginning at the 48-hour forecast period, lying close to a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models. At this point, it is expected that vertical shear would cause Howard to become post-tropical by 72 hours, which is also a little later than indicated in previous advisories. It should be noted that the IVCN intensity consensus is 5-10 kt higher than the official forecast on days 3-5, so additional adjustments to the forecast intensity and cyclone status may be necessary if it appears that Howard could hold on as a tropical cyclone longer than currently anticipated. The initial motion remains 295/13 kt. Howard is located near the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge, which is expected to build westward during the next 24 hours. As a result, the storm should continue west-northwestward for the next 48 hours, followed by a westward motion on days 3-5 once the cyclone becomes post-tropical and is steered by the low-level trade winds. There is very little spread among the track models, and the NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 18.8N 128.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 19.7N 130.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 20.8N 133.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 21.6N 136.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 22.2N 139.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 22.8N 145.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 06/1200Z 23.0N 150.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1200Z 23.0N 155.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm HOWARD (EP4/EP092016)
2016-08-02 16:37:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HOWARD REACHING COOLER WATERS... ...EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 2 the center of HOWARD was located near 18.8, -128.9 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm HOWARD Public Advisory Number 9
2016-08-02 16:37:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 021436 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HOWARD ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016 ...HOWARD REACHING COOLER WATERS... ...EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 128.9W ABOUT 1255 MI...2025 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Howard was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 128.9 West. Howard is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin by tonight and Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm HOWARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2016-08-02 16:37:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 02 2016 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 021436 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 1500 UTC TUE AUG 02 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HOWARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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