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Tropical Storm HOWARD Forecast Advisory Number 9
2016-08-02 16:36:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 02 2016 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 021436 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 1500 UTC TUE AUG 02 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 128.9W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 128.9W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 128.3W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.7N 130.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.8N 133.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.6N 136.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.2N 139.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.8N 145.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 23.0N 150.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 23.0N 155.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 128.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm HOWARD Forecast Discussion Number 8
2016-08-02 10:49:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 020849 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016 Deep convection has increased and become better organized since the previous advisory with the development of a ragged CDO feature. However, recent ASCAT wind data indicate that the low-level center is displaced near the southern edge of the cloud shield due to some modest southwesterly vertical wind shear. The intensity has been increased to 50 kt based on ASCAT-A and ASCAT-B overpasses around 0600Z. The initial motion estimate is 295/13 kt. Howard is forecast to continue moving in a general west-northwestward motion for the next 48 hours or so and gradually weaken. By 72 hours and beyond, Howard is expected to become a vertically shallow remnant low pressure system that will be steered westward by a expansive subtropical ridge located to the north of the cyclone. The NHC model guidance remains tightly packed and the new forecast track, which lies close to multi-model consensus TVCN, is just an extension of the previous advisory. After the earlier brief convective hiatus while Howard was moving over a cold water pool, the cyclone is now moving over warmer water, which likely has aided in the recent redevelopment of significant convection. Although some additional intensification is possible today, this will be short-lived due to Howard moving over sub-25 deg C sea-surface temperatures and into drier and more stable airmass in 12 hours or so. After that time, the combination of even cooler water and increasing southwesterly wind shear should induce steady weakening, with Howard becoming a post-tropical cyclone by 48 hours. While the remnant low is forecast to move back over SSTs near 26 deg C in 96-120 hours, strong southwesterly shear and a stable air mass should prevent any redevelopment of persistent deep convection. The new intensity forecast is similar to the IVCN consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 18.3N 127.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 19.3N 129.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 20.5N 132.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 21.4N 135.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 22.1N 137.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 05/0600Z 22.9N 143.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0600Z 23.2N 149.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0600Z 23.2N 154.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm HOWARD (EP4/EP092016)
2016-08-02 10:49:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HOWARD STRENGTHENS A LITTLE OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 2 the center of HOWARD was located near 18.3, -127.6 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm HOWARD Public Advisory Number 8
2016-08-02 10:49:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 020848 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HOWARD ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016 ...HOWARD STRENGTHENS A LITTLE OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 127.6W ABOUT 1185 MI...1910 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Howard was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 127.6 West. Howard is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin by tonight or early Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm HOWARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2016-08-02 10:49:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 02 2016 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 020848 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 0900 UTC TUE AUG 02 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HOWARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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