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Tropical Storm HOWARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2016-08-02 04:35:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 02 2016 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 020234 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 0300 UTC TUE AUG 02 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HOWARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm HOWARD Forecast Advisory Number 7
2016-08-02 04:34:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 02 2016 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 020234 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 0300 UTC TUE AUG 02 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 126.4W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 126.4W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 125.8W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.7N 128.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 20.0N 130.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 21.1N 133.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 22.0N 136.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.9N 142.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 23.3N 147.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 23.2N 152.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 126.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm HOWARD Graphics
2016-08-01 23:30:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Aug 2016 21:30:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Aug 2016 21:04:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm HOWARD Forecast Discussion Number 6
2016-08-01 23:29:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON AUG 01 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 012129 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 200 PM PDT MON AUG 01 2016 Howard's cloud pattern has become less organized since the last advisory. Although the cyclone has plenty of banding features, they are generally confined to eastern half of its circulation. The low-level center has also recently become exposed, possibly due to westerly shear. Satellite classifications are T3.0/45 kt and T3.5/55 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively. The initial intensity estimate is kept at 45 kt, on the lower end of these estimates because of the cyclone's degraded appearance. The initial motion estimate is 295/11. A subtropical ridge north of Howard is primarily responsible for the cyclone's steering, but a mid- to upper-level low to the west of it has been imparting a greater northerly component of motion. This general motion with some slight increase in forward speed is likely for another couple of days, after which time a turn toward the west is expected. The turn should occur once Howard weakens and becomes a much shallower cyclone embedded in the trade-wind flow. The new NHC track forecast is only adjusted slightly north of the previous one and is quite close to the multi-model consensus. Sea surface temperatures are sufficiently high to allow for some intensification during the next 12 hours or so, but westerly shear over Howard may temper that. Weakening should commence in about 24 hours, and this rate of weakening should soon become faster as the large-scale thermodynamic become increasingly hostile. Remnant low status is forecast in 48 hours, and dissipation is likely just after day 5. The new NHC intensity forecast is somewhat reduced relative to the previous one and is a little lower than the multi- model consensus after 24 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 17.2N 125.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 18.4N 127.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 19.7N 129.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 20.8N 132.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 21.8N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/1800Z 22.9N 141.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1800Z 23.3N 146.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1800Z 23.4N 151.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Storm HOWARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2016-08-01 23:29:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 01 2016 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 012129 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HOWARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016 2100 UTC MON AUG 01 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HOWARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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