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Tropical Storm Douglas Forecast Discussion Number 3

2020-07-21 04:35:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Jul 20 2020 745 WTPZ43 KNHC 210235 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 500 PM HST Mon Jul 20 2020 Satellite data indicate that the cyclone is strengthening. The system now has a small but well organized central dense overcast with curved bands on the west side of the circulation. All of the satellite intensity estimates are of tropical storm strength, and based on that data the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt, making the system Tropical Storm Douglas. The tropical storm is moving west-southwestward at 9 kt. A mid-level ridge situated to the north of Douglas off the northern Baja California coast should cause the storm to gradually turn westward during the next couple of days and then west-northwestward beyond that time. The models are in good agreement on this scenario, and only small changes were made to the previous prediction. Douglas is expected to be in quite favorable conditions of low vertical wind shear, high amounts of moisture, and warm SSTs during the next few days. Given these conducive environmental conditions and the storm's improved and compact structure, steady or possibly even rapid strengthening is possible during that time period. After a few days, however, a combination of higher shear, slightly cooler waters, and drier air should end the strengthening trend and induce weakening. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the higher end of the guidance. This forecast shows a faster rate of strengthening in the short term and more weakening at the end of the period compared to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 13.1N 121.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 12.5N 123.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 12.0N 125.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 11.9N 128.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 12.3N 130.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 23/1200Z 13.2N 133.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 14.2N 136.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 25/0000Z 15.9N 141.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 26/0000Z 16.6N 147.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Summary for Tropical Storm Douglas (EP3/EP082020)

2020-07-21 04:34:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS... ...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... As of 5:00 PM HST Mon Jul 20 the center of Douglas was located near 13.1, -121.6 with movement WSW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Douglas Public Advisory Number 3

2020-07-21 04:34:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Jul 20 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 210234 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Douglas Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 500 PM HST Mon Jul 20 2020 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS... ...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 121.6W ABOUT 1025 MI...1645 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Douglas was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 121.6 West. Douglas is moving toward the west-southwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slightly faster westward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Douglas is expected to become a hurricane in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Douglas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

2020-07-21 04:34:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 210234 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 0300 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 10N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 10N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 3(32) X(32) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 1(31) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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