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Tropical Storm MANUEL Public Advisory Number 22

2013-09-19 22:34:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT THU SEP 19 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 192034 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 PM PDT THU SEP 19 2013 ...MANUEL WEAKENING OVER MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING INLAND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.7N 107.1W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM E OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WARNING OR WACHES IN EFFECT. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST. MANUEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TONIGHT AND MANUEL IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO BY FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 8 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF SINALOA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. MANUEL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE STATES OF DURANGO AND CHIHUAHUA. WIND..TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING INLAND NEAR THE CENTER OF MANUEL DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm MANUEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22

2013-09-19 22:34:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 192034 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 9 NA NA NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 76 NA NA NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 15 NA NA NA NA NA NA HURRICANE X NA NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X NA NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 25KT NA NA NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Advisory Number 22

2013-09-19 22:34:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 192033 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WARNING OR WACHES IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 107.1W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 107.1W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 107.6W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 26.3N 106.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 107.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Summary for Tropical Storm MANUEL (EP3/EP132013)

2013-09-19 22:33:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...MANUEL WEAKENING OVER MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING INLAND... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Sep 19 the center of MANUEL was located near 25.7, -107.1 with movement NE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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