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Hurricane MANUEL Public Advisory Number 19

2013-09-19 04:53:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 190253 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 800 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 ...MANUEL HUGGING THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 108.0W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF ALTATA MEXICO ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO HUATABAMPITO...AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM MAZATLAN TO LA CRUZ...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LA CRUZ TO TOPOLOBAMPO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO HUATABAMPITO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MANUEL WAS ON THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.0 WEST. MANUEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MANUEL WILL MOVE GRADUALLY INLAND OVER WESTERN MEXICO BUT NOT TOO FAR FROM THE COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. MANUEL IS A VERY SMALL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SINALOA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN SONORA WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA. RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF SINALOA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. MANUEL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE STATE OF NAYARIT. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Hurricane MANUEL Graphics

2013-09-19 01:35:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2013 23:35:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2013 21:06:24 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane MANUEL (EP3/EP132013)

2013-09-19 01:31:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...MANUEL BECOMES A HURRICANE... ...NORTHERN EYEWALL ALREADY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 5:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 the center of MANUEL was located near 24.3, -108.0 with movement N at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

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Hurricane MANUEL Public Advisory Number 18A

2013-09-19 01:31:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 182330 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE MANUEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 500 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 ...MANUEL BECOMES A HURRICANE... ...NORTHERN EYEWALL ALREADY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.3N 108.0W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM...SW OF ALTATA MEXICO ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...115 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LA CRUZ TO TOPOLOBAMPO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN TO LA CRUZ A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO SAN LUCAS TO SAN EVARISTO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE RAGGED EYE OF HURRICANE MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.0 WEST. MANUEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MANUEL WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE WEST- CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MANUEL IS NOW A HURRICANE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...115 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE HURRICANE MOVES INLAND. MANUEL IS A SMALL HURRICANE...AND THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD TO 20 MILES...30 KM FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ON PORTIONS OF THE COAST AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOON WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF SINALOA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. MANUEL IS ALSO FORECAST TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF NAYARIT AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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