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Hurricane MANUEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2013-09-19 10:33:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 190832 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MANUEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 2 11 26 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 1 16 33 28 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 72 66 41 31 NA NA NA HURRICANE 27 16 16 15 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 26 14 13 12 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 1 2 3 3 NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 55KT 45KT 35KT 25KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) LORETO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HUATABAMPO 34 X 7( 7) 6(13) 8(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) HUATABAMPO 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HUATABAMPO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LOS MOCHIS 34 23 17(40) 5(45) 3(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) LOS MOCHIS 50 2 6( 8) 3(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) LOS MOCHIS 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 29 7(36) 5(41) 3(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) CULIACAN 50 2 5( 7) 4(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) CULIACAN 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Hurricane MANUEL Forecast Advisory Number 20
2013-09-19 10:32:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 190832 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MANUEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LA CRUZ TO TOPOLOBAMPO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO HUATABAMPITO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 108.2W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 108.2W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 108.2W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 25.3N 108.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 25.5N 108.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 25.6N 108.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 25.7N 108.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 108.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Hurricane MANUEL Graphics
2013-09-19 07:34:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2013 05:34:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2013 03:06:24 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane MANUEL (EP3/EP132013)
2013-09-19 07:33:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MANUEL MOVING SLOWLY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 11:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 the center of MANUEL was located near 24.7, -108.1 with movement N at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane MANUEL Public Advisory Number 19A
2013-09-19 07:33:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 190533 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE MANUEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 1100 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 ...MANUEL MOVING SLOWLY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.7N 108.1W ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM WNW OF ALTATA MEXICO ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LA CRUZ TO TOPOLOBAMPO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO HUATABAMPITO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MANUEL WAS LOCATED VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 108.1 WEST. MANUEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE A SMALL DISTANCE INLAND OVER WESTERN MEXICO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT. MANUEL IS A VERY SMALL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SINALOA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN SONORA WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA. RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF SINALOA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. MANUEL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE STATE OF NAYARIT. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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