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Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Advisory Number 17
2013-09-18 19:41:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1800 UTC WED SEP 18 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 181741 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 1800 UTC WED SEP 18 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ TO TOPOLOBAMPO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LA CRUZ TO TOPOLOBAMPO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN TO TOPOLOBAMPO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO SAN LUCAS TO SAN EVARISTO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA....IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 107.9W AT 18/1800Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 107.9W AT 18/1800Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 107.8W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 24.0N 108.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 24.6N 108.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 25.2N 108.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 25.2N 108.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 24.9N 109.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N 110.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.6N 107.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
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Tropical Storm MANUEL Graphics
2013-09-18 17:14:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2013 14:41:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2013 15:07:25 GMT
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Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 16
2013-09-18 16:42:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 181442 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 800 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MANUEL HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THE RADAR IMAGES SHOW THAT A BAND OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOSELY WRAPS AROUND MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT MANUEL HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD PERMIT SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. AFTER 72 HOURS...LAND INTERACTION WILL LIKELY CAUSE MANUEL TO WEAKEN AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THE RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MANUEL HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...OR A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE EARLIER FORECASTS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE MODEL SPREAD BECOMES QUITE LARGE...WITH THE HWRF LYING ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE...SHOWING LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN A DAY OR SO. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS MANUEL BECOMING STATIONARY ON THURSDAY...BEFORE TURNING WEST AND MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE DIFFERENCES APPEAR AT LEAST PARTIALLY RELATED TO THE PREDICTED DEPTH OF MANUEL...SINCE A DEEPER SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY CONTINUE NORTHWARD TOWARD MAINLAND MEXICO. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD DURING THE FIRST 24 TO 48 HOURS TO BE CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FOR NOW...THE NHC FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR A BEND TO THE WEST AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD...BUT THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FOREAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 23.4N 107.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 23.8N 108.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 24.3N 108.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 24.5N 108.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 24.5N 109.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 24.3N 109.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 24.0N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm MANUEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2013-09-18 16:41:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 181441 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 6 11 16 26 28 NA TROP DEPRESSION 15 26 31 29 35 32 NA TROPICAL STORM 84 64 51 49 37 38 NA HURRICANE X 4 6 6 2 2 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 4 6 6 2 2 NA HUR CAT 2 X X X 1 X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 45KT 45KT 40KT 25KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 4(13) 3(16) 1(17) X(17) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 7( 8) 5(13) 4(17) 3(20) 1(21) X(21) LA PAZ 34 1 6( 7) 5(12) 8(20) 5(25) 2(27) X(27) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LORETO 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) 2(13) X(13) GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HUATABAMPO 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) 3(13) 1(14) X(14) LOS MOCHIS 34 1 12(13) 7(20) 6(26) 3(29) 1(30) X(30) LOS MOCHIS 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LOS MOCHIS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CULIACAN 34 5 25(30) 6(36) 5(41) 2(43) 1(44) X(44) CULIACAN 50 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) CULIACAN 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) 3(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Storm MANUEL (EP3/EP132013)
2013-09-18 16:41:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MANUEL BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF MEXICO... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 the center of MANUEL was located near 23.4, -107.8 with movement NNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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