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Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 17
2013-09-18 19:44:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 181744 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 1100 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 RECENT MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT MANUEL HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO RAISE THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY. BASED ON SPECIAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALONG WITH OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM UW/CIMSS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATERS...CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE INNER CORE INTERACTS WITH LAND. SINCE THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR MANUEL TO APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT NEARS THE COAST...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. MANUEL CONTINUES MOVING A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE EARLIER FORECAST. THE LATEST NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED EASTWARD AND NOW SHOWS MANUEL MOVING VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE 12Z GFS THAT NOW TAKES MANUEL INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO IN A DAY OR SO. ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST COULD BE REQUIRED IF SOME OF THE OTHER RELIABLE GUIDANCE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER TODAY. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS IN LIEU OF THE 1800 UTC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1800Z 23.6N 107.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 24.0N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 24.6N 108.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 25.2N 108.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 25.2N 108.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 24.9N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 24.0N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm MANUEL Graphics
2013-09-18 19:44:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2013 17:42:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2013 15:07:25 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm MANUEL (EP3/EP132013)
2013-09-18 19:43:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MANUEL QUICKLY STRENGTHENS... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICIO... As of 11:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 the center of MANUEL was located near 23.6, -107.9 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm MANUEL Public Advisory Number 17
2013-09-18 19:43:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 181743 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM MANUEL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 1100 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 ...MANUEL QUICKLY STRENGTHENS... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICIO... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.6N 107.9W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WNW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ENE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA CRUZ TO TOPOLOBAMPO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LA CRUZ TO TOPOLOBAMPO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN TO TOPOLOBAMPO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO SAN LUCAS TO SAN EVARISTO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA....IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.9 WEST. MANUEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MANUEL WILL APPROACH THE WEST- CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATE THURSDAY. SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT MANUEL HAS STRENGTHENED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND MANUEL COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT APPROACHES THE COAST. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM FROM THE CENTER. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF SINALOA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. MANUEL IS ALSO FORECAST TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF NAYARIT AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm MANUEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2013-09-18 19:43:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1800 UTC WED SEP 18 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 181743 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 1800 UTC WED SEP 18 2013 AT 1800Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 3 12 19 31 34 NA TROP DEPRESSION 6 14 25 26 36 31 NA TROPICAL STORM 84 64 50 48 32 34 NA HURRICANE 10 19 14 7 2 2 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 10 18 12 7 1 2 NA HUR CAT 2 X 1 1 1 X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 55KT 60KT 60KT 50KT 40KT 25KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 5 7(12) 3(15) 3(18) 3(21) 1(22) X(22) SAN JOSE CABO 34 8 9(17) 4(21) 3(24) 3(27) 1(28) X(28) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) LA PAZ 34 5 12(17) 6(23) 5(28) 5(33) 1(34) X(34) LA PAZ 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LORETO 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 6(14) 4(18) 2(20) X(20) HERMOSILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) HUATABAMPO 34 2 8(10) 7(17) 7(24) 3(27) 1(28) X(28) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 7 23(30) 12(42) 6(48) 2(50) X(50) X(50) LOS MOCHIS 50 X 5( 5) 7(12) 3(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) LOS MOCHIS 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 27 30(57) 6(63) 1(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) CULIACAN 50 2 18(20) 6(26) 1(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) CULIACAN 64 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MAZATLAN 34 11 5(16) 2(18) 2(20) 1(21) 1(22) X(22) SAN BLAS 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) P VALLARTA 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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