je.st
news
Tag: manuel
Hurricane MANUEL Graphics
2013-09-19 05:13:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2013 02:56:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2013 03:06:24 GMT
Tags: graphics
manuel
hurricane
hurricane graphics
Hurricane MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 19
2013-09-19 04:54:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 190253 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 800 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOWED A RAGGED EYE. ON THAT BASIS...MANUEL WAS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WITH 65-KNOT WINDS. SINCE THAT TIME...THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN...AND BECAUSE THE NORTHERN EYEWALL AND A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION ARE ALREADY INTERACTING WITH LAND...THE INTENSIFICATION OBSERVED EARLIER HAS ENDED. MANUEL HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT ABOUT 3 KT. THIS SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH SMALL...HAS BROUGHT THE CENTER CLOSE TO THE COAST...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. HOWEVER...MANUEL COULD EASILY DEVIATE A LITTLE BIT TO THE LEFT..AND THE CENTER COULD REMAIN OVER WATER A LITTLE LONGER. THIS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THE RATE OF WEAKENING. TRACK GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AND MODELS ARE IN AS MUCH DISAGREEMENT AS POSSIBLE. THIS OCCURS...IN GENERAL...WHEN THE STEERING FLOW IS NOT WELL ESTABLISHED. THE NHC FORECAST WHICH...IN FACT...IS ALSO HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...HAS OPTED FOR THE SLOW NORTHWARD TRACK BRINGING A WEAKENING CYCLONE FATHER INLAND. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 24.6N 108.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 24.8N 108.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/0000Z 25.1N 108.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/1200Z 25.5N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 21/0000Z 25.5N 108.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 22/0000Z 25.5N 108.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tags: number
discussion
manuel
forecast
Hurricane MANUEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2013-09-19 04:53:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2013 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 190253 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MANUEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 3 11 27 43 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 2 14 31 28 21 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 86 65 41 29 22 NA NA HURRICANE 12 19 16 16 15 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 12 17 13 13 12 NA NA HUR CAT 2 X 1 3 2 2 NA NA HUR CAT 3 X 1 X 1 X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 55KT 45KT 35KT 25KT 20KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 6(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HERMOSILLO 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HUATABAMPO 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 4(14) 5(19) X(19) X(19) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HUATABAMPO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LOS MOCHIS 34 3 18(21) 10(31) 4(35) 3(38) X(38) X(38) LOS MOCHIS 50 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) LOS MOCHIS 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 11 19(30) 6(36) 4(40) 3(43) X(43) X(43) CULIACAN 50 1 6( 7) 5(12) 2(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) CULIACAN 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAZATLAN 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tags: number
speed
wind
manuel
Summary for Hurricane MANUEL (EP3/EP132013)
2013-09-19 04:53:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MANUEL HUGGING THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 the center of MANUEL was located near 24.6, -108.0 with movement N at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Tags: summary
manuel
hurricane
Hurricane MANUEL Forecast Advisory Number 19
2013-09-19 04:53:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2013 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 190253 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MANUEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO HUATABAMPITO...AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM MAZATLAN TO LA CRUZ...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LA CRUZ TO TOPOLOBAMPO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO HUATABAMPITO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 108.0W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 108.0W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 108.0W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 24.8N 108.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 25.1N 108.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 25.5N 108.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 25.5N 108.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 25.5N 108.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 108.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tags: number
manuel
advisory
forecast
Sites : [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] next »