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Hurricane MANUEL Public Advisory Number 20A
2013-09-19 13:43:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM PDT THU SEP 19 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 191143 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE MANUEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 500 AM PDT THU SEP 19 2013 ...MANUEL MEANDERING NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.8N 108.1W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NW OF ALTATA MEXICO ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LA CRUZ TO TOPOLOBAMPO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO HUATABAMPITO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.1 WEST. MANUEL HAS BEEN MEANDERING NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...HOWEVER...A NORTHWARD MOTION NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE A SMALL DISTANCE INLAND OVER WESTERN MEXICO IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MANUEL IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SINALOA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN SONORA WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA. RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 8 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF SINALOA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. MANUEL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE STATE OF NAYARIT. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/LANDSEA
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Hurricane MANUEL Graphics
2013-09-19 11:12:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2013 08:36:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 19 Sep 2013 09:05:25 GMT
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Hurricane MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 20
2013-09-19 10:34:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU SEP 19 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 190834 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 AM PDT THU SEP 19 2013 THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF MANUEL HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER A SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES AND RADAR DATA FROM GUASAVE MEXICO SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE THUS FAR...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERN EYEWALL HAS BEEN OVER LAND FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MICROWAVE IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTED SOME TILT TO THE CIRCULATION...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DISPLACED A BIT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. GIVEN THAT THE CENTER STILL APPEARS TO BE OFFSHORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 355/03. THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE FIXES SHOWED THAT THE CENTER IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE STEERING... THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LARGE SPREAD. THE NHC FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND SHOW THE CENTER OF MANUEL MOVING SLOWLY INLAND NEAR THE COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS GENERAL IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS...ECMWF...FIM...AND HWRF MODELS. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF MANUEL COULD DECOUPLE FROM THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND LINGER OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS...AS SHOWN BY THE UKMET. NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW IN THE TRACK FORECAST. AS MORE OF THE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER LAND IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. WITH THE NHC TRACK FORECAST SHOWING THE CYCLONE REMAINING INLAND...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS. IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER LONGER...THE CIRCULATION COULD PERSIST LONGER AND WEAKEN SLOWER THAN SHOWN HERE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 24.8N 108.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 25.3N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/0600Z 25.5N 108.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/1800Z 25.6N 108.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 21/0600Z 25.7N 108.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Summary for Hurricane MANUEL (EP3/EP132013)
2013-09-19 10:33:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MANUEL CRAWLING NORTHWARD VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 the center of MANUEL was located near 24.8, -108.2 with movement N at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane MANUEL Public Advisory Number 20
2013-09-19 10:33:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU SEP 19 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 190832 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 AM PDT THU SEP 19 2013 ...MANUEL CRAWLING NORTHWARD VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.8N 108.2W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NW OF ALTATA MEXICO ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LA CRUZ TO TOPOLOBAMPO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF TOPOLOBAMPO TO HUATABAMPITO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST. MANUEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE A SMALL DISTANCE INLAND OVER WESTERN MEXICO IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MANUEL IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SINALOA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN SONORA WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA. RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF SINALOA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. MANUEL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE STATE OF NAYARIT. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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