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Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar Graphics
2018-10-31 21:38:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 31 Oct 2018 20:38:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 31 Oct 2018 21:22:18 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar Forecast Discussion Number 20
2018-10-31 21:35:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Oct 31 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 312034 TCDAT1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 500 PM AST Wed Oct 31 2018 Satellite imagery and scatterometer data indicate that Oscar has become a hurricane-force extratropical low, as the central convection has all but dissipated and frontal-band-type cloud features have become better defined. The scatterometer data show hurricane-force winds about 70 n mi south of the center, and that the overall wind field has expanded considerably since the previous overpass. The cyclone is expected to maintain an intensity of 60-65 kt for the next 48 h, then gradually weaken as the baroclinic energy wanes, with dissipation occurring between 96-120 h over the far northeastern Atlantic. The initial motion is now 030/30 kt. Oscar is now well embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, and for the next 3-4 days it should move generally northeastward with a gradual decrease in forward speed. Much of the current forecast, especially the intensity and the size, is based on input from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. This is the last advisory on Oscar from the National Hurricane Center. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 39.3N 49.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 01/0600Z 42.6N 46.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 01/1800Z 46.8N 41.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 02/0600Z 50.7N 35.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 02/1800Z 54.2N 28.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 03/1800Z 59.5N 15.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 04/1800Z 67.0N 2.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar (AT1/AL162018)
2018-10-31 21:34:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OSCAR BECOMES A HURRICANE-FORCE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...HIGH SURF TO SUBSIDE ON BERMUDA TONIGHT... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Oct 31 the center of Oscar was located near 39.3, -49.6 with movement NNE at 35 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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at1al162018
Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar Public Advisory Number 20
2018-10-31 21:34:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Oct 31 2018 000 WTNT31 KNHC 312034 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 500 PM AST Wed Oct 31 2018 ...OSCAR BECOMES A HURRICANE-FORCE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...HIGH SURF TO SUBSIDE ON BERMUDA TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.3N 49.6W ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar was located near latitude 39.3 North, longitude 49.6 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h), and a motion toward the northeast with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next two to three days. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Although gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days, Oscar is expected to remain a powerful post-tropical cyclone over the north-central and northeastern Atlantic Ocean into the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 320 miles (520 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Oscar that are affecting Bermuda will subside tonight. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Oscar. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2018-10-31 21:34:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 31 2018 000 FONT11 KNHC 312034 PWSAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018 2100 UTC WED OCT 31 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 4 11(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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