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Hurricane Oscar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

2018-10-30 15:35:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 30 2018 000 FONT11 KNHC 301435 PWSAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018 1500 UTC TUE OCT 30 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Summary for Hurricane Oscar (AT1/AL162018)

2018-10-30 15:35:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...OSCAR TURNS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... ...HIGH SURF EXPECTED ALONG BERMUDA BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Oct 30 the center of Oscar was located near 29.7, -57.7 with movement NNE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

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Hurricane Oscar Public Advisory Number 15

2018-10-30 15:35:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 30 2018 000 WTNT31 KNHC 301435 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 30 2018 ...OSCAR TURNS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... ...HIGH SURF EXPECTED ALONG BERMUDA BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.7N 57.7W ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 57.7 West. Oscar is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A north-northeastward or northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days, but Oscar is expected to become a powerful extratropical low over the north-central Atlantic Ocean by late Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Oscar will affect Bermuda through Wednesday. Please consult products from your local weather office, as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Hurricane Oscar Forecast Advisory Number 15

2018-10-30 15:35:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 30 2018 000 WTNT21 KNHC 301435 TCMAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018 1500 UTC TUE OCT 30 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 57.7W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 210SE 210SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 57.7W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 58.0W FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 31.8N 56.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 35.6N 52.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 30SE 30SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 160SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 40.6N 48.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 90SW 80NW. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 270SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 45.1N 44.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 80NE 100SE 90SW 80NW. 34 KT...330NE 330SE 300SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 52.6N 31.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 100SE 120SW 80NW. 34 KT...330NE 390SE 360SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 59.0N 18.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 63.5N 6.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.7N 57.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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