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Hurricane Oscar Forecast Discussion Number 14
2018-10-30 09:34:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Oct 30 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 300834 TCDAT1 Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 500 AM AST Tue Oct 30 2018 Oscar's eye is less distinct on infrared satellite imagery than it was several hours ago. Conventional and microwave imagery suggest that the center is tilted a bit to the northeast with height, and there continues to be some erosion of convection over the southwestern quadrant of the hurricane. This is indicative of some southwesterly shear over the system, and Oscar does not appear likely to strengthen further. The current intensity is held at 90 kt based on a blend of Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB. Model guidance indicates that the shear will not increase further until tonight, so the intensity is held steady for the next 12 hours. After that time, south-southwesterly shear if forecast to increase and become quite high in 36-48 hours. Around that time, global models show Oscar interacting with a frontal zone, and causing significant warm and cold air advection around the center, indicating the transition to a vigorous extratropical cyclone. Not surprisingly, the global guidance also shows a substantial increase in the size of the system during and after the extratropical transformation, and this is reflected in the NHC wind radii forecasts. Oscar is beginning to move faster, just to the east of due north, or around 010/11 kt. There is little change to the track forecast reasoning from the previous advisory. Over the next couple of days, Oscar should continue to accelerate, toward the north-northeast, in the flow on the southeast side of a mid-latitude trough that has just moved off the United States east coast. Later in the period, post-tropical Oscar should become more embedded within the trough and in the mid-latitude westerlies, and move northeastward over the northeastern Atlantic. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and is a blend of the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus predictions. Large swells from Oscar will affect Bermuda through Wednesday. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 28.6N 58.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 30.6N 57.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 31/0600Z 34.0N 54.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 31/1800Z 38.5N 50.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 43.5N 46.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 02/0600Z 50.5N 35.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/0600Z 57.5N 21.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 04/0600Z 63.0N 9.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Hurricane Oscar (AT1/AL162018)
2018-10-30 09:32:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OSCAR MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HIGH SURF ALONG BERMUDA BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Oct 30 the center of Oscar was located near 28.6, -58.2 with movement N at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane Oscar Public Advisory Number 14
2018-10-30 09:32:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Oct 30 2018 000 WTNT31 KNHC 300832 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 500 AM AST Tue Oct 30 2018 ...OSCAR MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HIGH SURF ALONG BERMUDA BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.6N 58.2W ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 58.2 West. Oscar is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). The hurricane is forecast to accelerate toward the north-northeast or northeast during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin tonight. Oscar is expected to become a powerful extratropical low over the north-central Atlantic by late Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Oscar will affect Bermuda through Wednesday. Please consult products from your local weather office, as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Oscar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2018-10-30 09:32:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 30 2018 000 FONT11 KNHC 300832 PWSAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018 0900 UTC TUE OCT 30 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Hurricane Oscar Forecast Advisory Number 14
2018-10-30 09:31:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 30 2018 000 WTNT21 KNHC 300831 TCMAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018 0900 UTC TUE OCT 30 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 58.2W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..390NE 180SE 210SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 58.2W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 58.3W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 30.6N 57.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 34.0N 54.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 38.5N 50.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...230NE 230SE 180SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 43.5N 46.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...300NE 330SE 240SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 50.5N 35.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 90NW. 34 KT...300NE 360SE 360SW 300NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 57.5N 21.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 63.0N 9.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.6N 58.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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