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Hurricane Oscar Public Advisory Number 19
2018-10-31 15:32:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 31 2018 000 WTNT31 KNHC 311432 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 31 2018 ...OSCAR DOING A QUICK COSTUME CHANGE INTO A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW... ...HIGH SURF TO CONTINUE ALONG BERMUDA BEACHES THROUGH TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.6N 51.6W ABOUT 700 MI...1130 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND ABOUT 805 MI...1300 KM ENE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located near latitude 36.6 North, longitude 51.6 West. Oscar is accelerating toward the northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h), and an even faster motion toward the northeast or north-northeast over the north Atlantic Ocean is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Oscar is expected to become an extratropical low over the north-central Atlantic Ocean later today. Although gradual weakening is expected during the next several days, Oscar is expected to remain a powerful post-tropical cyclone over the north-central and northeastern Atlantic Ocean into the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Oscar will affect Bermuda through today. Please consult products from your local weather office, as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Oscar Forecast Advisory Number 19
2018-10-31 15:32:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 31 2018 000 WTNT21 KNHC 311431 TCMAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018 1500 UTC WED OCT 31 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.6N 51.6W AT 31/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. 34 KT.......180NE 240SE 180SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 360SE 270SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.6N 51.6W AT 31/1500Z AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 52.4W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 40.2N 48.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 100SW 80NW. 34 KT...270NE 330SE 270SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 44.5N 44.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 110SW 90NW. 34 KT...330NE 390SE 360SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 48.4N 38.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 90SE 110SW 70NW. 34 KT...330NE 420SE 390SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 52.1N 32.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 120SW 60NW. 34 KT...360NE 450SE 400SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 57.8N 18.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 140SE 120SW 0NW. 34 KT...390NE 480SE 480SW 420NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 64.0N 5.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.6N 51.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Oscar Graphics
2018-10-31 09:45:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 31 Oct 2018 08:45:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 31 Oct 2018 09:22:15 GMT
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Hurricane Oscar Forecast Discussion Number 18
2018-10-31 09:43:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Oct 31 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 310842 TCDAT1 Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 500 AM AST Wed Oct 31 2018 Oscar continues to become less tropical-looking in appearance. Central convection is now minimal, and the overall cloud pattern is quite asymmetric, with the main area of dense overcast over the western portion of the circulation, stretching northward over an approaching frontal boundary. The current intensity estimate is 65 kt in accord with the latest Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB. Oscar is expected to merge with the nearby front in 12-18 hours, by which time the global models depict considerable cold and warm advection around the center. This indicates that Oscar will become an extratropical cyclone tonight, but energy from baroclinic processes will likely maintain the system near hurricane strength for the next couple of days. Only gradual weakening is expected thereafter and post-tropical Oscar will likely be a strong cyclone for the next 4 days or so. Post-tropical Oscar is forecast to merge with another extratropical cyclone at high latitudes over the weekend. The official intensity forecast is close to the latest GFS prediction, which should be appropriate for a mid-latitude system. Oscar is moving quickly toward the northeast, or 035/19 kt. The hurricane is being steered by the flow on the eastern side of a trough that is passing through Atlantic Canada. In a day or so, post-tropical Oscar should become embedded within the trough and move rapidly northeastward in the mid-latitude westerlies over the north-central and northeastern Atlantic. The track guidance is in fairly good agreement, aside from some speed differences in the latter part of the forecast period. The official forecast is close to the latest dynamical model consensus, and is similar to the previous NHC track. Large swells from Oscar are expected to continue to affect portions of the coast of Bermuda through today. Please consult products from your local weather office, as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 34.1N 53.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 37.6N 50.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 42.2N 47.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 01/1800Z 46.0N 42.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 02/0600Z 49.7N 36.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 03/0600Z 56.0N 23.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 04/0600Z 61.5N 10.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 05/0600Z...MERGED WITH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Oscar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2018-10-31 09:36:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 31 2018 000 FONT11 KNHC 310835 PWSAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018 0900 UTC WED OCT 31 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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