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Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar Forecast Advisory Number 20
2018-10-31 21:34:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 31 2018 000 WTNT21 KNHC 312033 TCMAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018 2100 UTC WED OCT 31 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 49.6W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 30 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 70SE 70SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT.......230NE 240SE 240SW 280NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 420SE 330SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 49.6W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.0N 50.5W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 42.6N 46.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. 50 KT...100NE 150SE 100SW 90NW. 34 KT...300NE 330SE 240SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 46.8N 41.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 90NE 110SE 120SW 90NW. 34 KT...330NE 360SE 390SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 50.7N 35.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 100SE 120SW 90NW. 34 KT...300NE 420SE 390SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 54.2N 28.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 120SE 150SW 60NW. 34 KT...360NE 450SE 420SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 59.5N 15.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 180SE 120SW 0NW. 34 KT...360NE 480SE 540SW 450NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 67.0N 2.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.3N 49.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON OSCAR. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Oscar Graphics
2018-10-31 15:35:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 31 Oct 2018 14:35:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 31 Oct 2018 15:22:16 GMT
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Hurricane Oscar Forecast Discussion Number 19
2018-10-31 15:33:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 31 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 311432 TCDAT1 Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 31 2018 Oscar is quickly transforming into an extratropical low. Although there is still a little bit of deep convection just north of the center, a more prominent cloud shield extends northward from the western part of the circulation. In addition, GOES-16 derived products show Oscar's center nearly embedded within a frontal zone and cold air advection occurring on the back side of the system. The maximum winds are a bit uncertain, but for now they are held at 65 kt based on the Dvorak Current Intensity number from TAFB and the latest microwave estimates, which range from 60-70 kt. Oscar is expected to complete extratropical transition later today when it becomes fully attached to the frontal boundary. Baroclinic energy is likely to keep the cyclone's intensity relatively steady for the next 48 hours or so, although it should be noted that the GFS shows some intensification later today as a sting jet develops to the west of the center. After 48 hours, the post-tropical cyclone is expected to gradually lose strength, and the NHC intensity forecast continues to most closely follow the GFS model, which is at the high end of the guidance envelope. Despite this weakening, Oscar's wind field is expected to grow substantially, affecting a large portion of the north Atlantic Ocean over the next several days. A northeastward acceleration continues with an initial motion of 035/25 kt. Further acceleration toward the north Atlantic is expected during the next 48 hours while Oscar becomes more fully embedded within the mid-latitude flow. The new NHC track forecast was shifted slightly northward and westward from the previous forecast to trend closer to the latest consensus aids, but otherwise the track forecast reasoning remains unchanged. Large swells from Oscar are expected to continue to affect portions of the coast of Bermuda through today. Please consult products from your local weather office, as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 36.6N 51.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 40.2N 48.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 01/1200Z 44.5N 44.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 02/0000Z 48.4N 38.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 02/1200Z 52.1N 32.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 03/1200Z 57.8N 18.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 04/1200Z 64.0N 5.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Oscar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2018-10-31 15:32:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 31 2018 000 FONT11 KNHC 311432 PWSAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018 1500 UTC WED OCT 31 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Hurricane Oscar (AT1/AL162018)
2018-10-31 15:32:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OSCAR DOING A QUICK COSTUME CHANGE INTO A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW... ...HIGH SURF TO CONTINUE ALONG BERMUDA BEACHES THROUGH TODAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Oct 31 the center of Oscar was located near 36.6, -51.6 with movement NE at 29 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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