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Summary for Hurricane Oscar (AT1/AL162018)
2018-10-31 09:35:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OSCAR EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT... ...HIGH SURF EXPECTED ALONG BERMUDA BEACHES THROUGH TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Oct 31 the center of Oscar was located near 34.1, -53.6 with movement NE at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane Oscar Public Advisory Number 18
2018-10-31 09:35:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Oct 31 2018 000 WTNT31 KNHC 310835 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Oscar Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 500 AM AST Wed Oct 31 2018 ...OSCAR EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT... ...HIGH SURF EXPECTED ALONG BERMUDA BEACHES THROUGH TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.1N 53.6W ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM ENE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Oscar was located near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 53.6 West. Oscar is moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). A faster north- northeast to northeast motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Oscar is expected to become an extratropical low over the north-central Atlantic Ocean by tonight. Although gradual weakening is expected during the next several days, Oscar is expected to remain a powerful post-tropical cyclone over the north-central and northeastern Atlantic Ocean into the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Oscar will affect Bermuda through today. Please consult products from your local weather office, as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Oscar Forecast Advisory Number 18
2018-10-31 09:34:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 31 2018 000 WTNT21 KNHC 310834 TCMAT1 HURRICANE OSCAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162018 0900 UTC WED OCT 31 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 53.6W AT 31/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT.......130NE 110SE 100SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 330SE 420SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 53.6W AT 31/0900Z AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 54.5W FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 37.6N 50.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 42.2N 47.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 50 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 300SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 46.0N 42.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 70SE 60SW 0NW. 50 KT...100NE 140SE 140SW 100NW. 34 KT...330NE 330SE 360SW 330NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 49.7N 36.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 140SE 140SW 100NW. 34 KT...330NE 330SE 360SW 330NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 56.0N 23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 180SE 180SW 50NW. 34 KT...420NE 480SE 480SW 420NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 61.5N 10.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z...MERGED WITH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.1N 53.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Oscar Graphics
2018-10-31 03:34:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 31 Oct 2018 02:34:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 31 Oct 2018 03:22:15 GMT
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Hurricane Oscar Forecast Discussion Number 17
2018-10-31 03:32:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 30 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 310232 TCDAT1 Hurricane Oscar Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162018 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 30 2018 While conventional satellite imagery continues to show an area of deep convection over the center of Oscar, recent microwave data suggest that the inner core has become fragmented and that the circulation is tilted from southwest to northeast. The overall cloud pattern has also expanded northward as Oscar begins to interact with a frontal zone that is approaching the system from the northwest. A blend of the latest Dvorak T- and Current Intensity (CI) numbers yields an initial wind speed of 70 kt for this advisory. Oscar will be moving over decreasing SSTs and into an area of higher vertical wind shear tonight and Wednesday which is likely to cause some additional weakening during that time. The hurricane should complete its extratropical transition in about 24 hours, and the dynamical models indicate that the post-tropical cyclone is likely to maintain 60-65 kt winds for at least another couple of days. Some weakening is expected by 96 hours before the system merges with another low pressure area over the far northeastern Atlantic. Oscar has turned northeastward and continues to accelerate. An additional increase in forward speed is anticipated during the next day or two, as the cyclone becomes embedded within deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough. Late in the period, the post-tropical low is forecast to slow down over the northeastern Atlantic. The track guidance remains in good agreement, except for some forward speed differences late in the period. The NHC track forecast is once again close to the various consensus aids and very similar to the previous advisory. Large swells from Oscar are expected to continue to affect portions of the coast of Bermuda through Wednesday. Please consult products from your local weather office as these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 32.8N 55.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 35.6N 52.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 40.2N 48.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 01/1200Z 44.3N 44.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 02/0000Z 48.2N 38.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 03/0000Z 55.2N 24.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 04/0000Z 61.0N 12.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 05/0000Z...MERGED WITH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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