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Tropical Storm Hector Graphics
2018-08-01 04:34:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 01 Aug 2018 02:34:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 01 Aug 2018 03:27:17 GMT
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Tropical Storm Hector Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-08-01 04:32:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 31 2018 224 WTPZ45 KNHC 010232 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 31 2018 Deep convection associated with the tropical cyclone has continued to become better organized since the previous advisory with an increase in banding over the western and southern portions of the circulation. As a result, satellite intensity estimates have increased to T2.5 on the Dvorak scale, so the initial wind speed has been increased to 35 kt. Hector becomes the eighth named storm of the 2018 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. Hector is forecast to traverse warm SSTs and remain within a favorable upper-level wind pattern during the next day or so which should result in steady strengthening. Some moderate northeasterly shear could temper the rate of intensification in 36-48 h, but the intensity guidance is generally more aggressive this cycle. The NHC intensity forecast calls for a faster rate of strengthening early in the forecast period, and brings Hector to hurricane status in a couple of days, which is in line with most of the intensity guidance. The updated official forecast also indicates a slightly higher peak intensity, but it is not as high as the dynamical model guidance and the ICON intensity consensus model in deference to the previous NHC advisory. Recent satellite fixes indicate that Hector is moving west- northwestward or 285/12 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge to the north of the tropical storm is expected to keep the system on a generally west-northwestward to westward motion throughout the forecast period. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, but there are some differences in the predicted forward speed of the cyclone. The ECMWF depicts a faster westward motion while the GFS, GFS ensemble mean, and HWRF show a somewhat slower speed. The new NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous official forecast, but is slower than most of the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 13.0N 118.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 13.4N 119.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 13.8N 122.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 13.9N 124.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 13.9N 126.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 13.8N 130.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 13.7N 134.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 13.7N 138.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Hector (EP5/EP102018)
2018-08-01 04:32:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 31 the center of Hector was located near 13.0, -118.2 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Hector Public Advisory Number 2
2018-08-01 04:32:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 31 2018 953 WTPZ35 KNHC 010232 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hector Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 31 2018 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 118.2W ABOUT 875 MI...1405 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hector was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 118.2 West. Hector is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west- northwestward to westward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Hector is expected to become a hurricane on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Hector Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2018-08-01 04:32:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 01 2018 930 FOPZ15 KNHC 010232 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102018 0300 UTC WED AUG 01 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 120W 34 10 12(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 10N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 125W 34 X 4( 4) 34(38) 28(66) 3(69) X(69) X(69) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 1(12) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 47(52) 10(62) X(62) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 6(26) X(26) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) 10N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 15(50) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 9(21) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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