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Summary for Hurricane Hector (EP5/EP102018)

2018-08-03 04:41:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...HECTOR STOPS INTENSIFYING FOR NOW... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 2 the center of Hector was located near 14.1, -126.9 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

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Hurricane Hector Public Advisory Number 10

2018-08-03 04:41:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 02 2018 875 WTPZ35 KNHC 030241 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Hector Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 02 2018 ...HECTOR STOPS INTENSIFYING FOR NOW... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 126.9W ABOUT 1265 MI...2040 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hector was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 126.9 West. Hector is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected tonight and Friday. Strengthening is expected after that, and Hector is forecast to strengthen into a major hurricane by Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Hector Forecast Advisory Number 10

2018-08-03 04:40:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 03 2018 647 WTPZ25 KNHC 030240 TCMEP5 HURRICANE HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102018 0300 UTC FRI AUG 03 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 126.9W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 126.9W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 126.3W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.1N 128.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.1N 130.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.0N 132.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 13.9N 135.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.0N 139.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 15.0N 144.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 16.5N 149.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 126.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane Hector Graphics

2018-08-02 22:44:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 02 Aug 2018 20:44:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 02 Aug 2018 20:44:26 GMT

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Hurricane Hector Forecast Discussion Number 9

2018-08-02 22:41:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 02 2018 142 WTPZ45 KNHC 022041 TCDEP5 Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 02 2018 Hector is a small but powerful hurricane this afternoon. Visible GOES-15 data show that it has a 10 n mi wide eye, surrounded by a increasingly symmetric area of deep convection. The latest satellite estimates at 18 UTC were between 90 kt and 95 kt, and since the presentation has continued to improve during the past few hours, the initial wind speed is set to 95 kt. Hector has intensified an impressive 50 kt over the past 24 hours- remarkable since the environment did not seem particularly favorable even 12 hours ago. What is perplexing about this forecast is that, despite all of the global models showing a more conducive environment during the next day or two, none of the regional hurricane models show intensification, and in fact they all show weakening. This would be a dramatic change, which seems pretty unlikely given the current state of things. It makes the most sense to show continuing strengthening, albeit at a reduced rate since the SSTs do moderate, in line with the SHIPS & LGEM models. The new forecast has a peak intensity at 72 hours when SSTs are the warmest with the lowest environmental shear. After that time, water temperatures and mid-level humidites should gradually decrease, which will probably promote some weakening. Obviously this is a low confidence forecast, and I wouldn't be surprised if it had to be raised in the short term later tonight. Hector continues on course, moving westward at 12 kt. The track forecast for the next 3 days is of high confidence, since the guidance is in good agreement and a large subtropical ridge is providing a well-defined steering current. Complications arise in the long range due to the potential interaction of Hector with a mid-level trough in the Central Pacific. The latest models show Hector moving into a weakness in the ridge associated with the trough, causing a more west-northwestward motion earlier in the forecast. This is a fairly subtle change but has led to most of the guidance trending to the north. The official forecast is shifted in that direction, but remains on the southwest side of the guidance envelope, close to the corrected-consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 14.1N 125.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 14.0N 127.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 13.9N 129.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 13.9N 132.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 13.8N 134.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 13.6N 139.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 14.5N 144.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 15.5N 149.0W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

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