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Hurricane Hector Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2018-08-03 10:51:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 03 2018 843 FOPZ15 KNHC 030850 PWSEP5 HURRICANE HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102018 0900 UTC FRI AUG 03 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 28 39(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) 15N 130W 50 1 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 130W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 39(40) 39(79) 3(82) X(82) X(82) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 33(38) 2(40) X(40) X(40) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 73(76) 8(84) X(84) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 44(44) 11(55) 1(56) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 9(36) X(36) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 64(66) 6(72) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) 6(44) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 6(27) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 40(45) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Hector Forecast Advisory Number 11
2018-08-03 10:50:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 03 2018 046 WTPZ25 KNHC 030850 TCMEP5 HURRICANE HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102018 0900 UTC FRI AUG 03 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 127.8W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 127.8W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 127.3W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.0N 129.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.0N 131.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.0N 133.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 13.9N 135.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.5N 140.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 15.5N 145.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 16.5N 150.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 127.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Hector Graphics
2018-08-03 04:43:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 03 Aug 2018 02:43:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 03 Aug 2018 03:25:46 GMT
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hurricane graphics
Hurricane Hector Forecast Discussion Number 10
2018-08-03 04:41:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 02 2018 184 WTPZ45 KNHC 030241 TCDEP5 Hurricane Hector Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 02 2018 Hector's rapid intensification has ended for the moment, with satellite imagery showing that the eye has become cloud filled since the last advisory. In addition, recent satellite microwave data indicate some erosion of the central convection on the north side of the center, possibly due to shear or a tongue of dry air working into the cyclone. The initial intensity is held at 95 kt in best agreement with the most recent CIMSS satellite consensus intensity estimate, but it is possible that this is a little generous. The initial motion is 270/11. A large subtropical ridge to the north of Hector should steer the cyclone westward for the next three days or so, and this part of the forecast track is an update of the previous track. Beyond that time, the large-scale models forecast a large deep-layer trough to develop over the northeastern Pacific, causing a weakness in the ridge to the north of Hector, and leading to the cyclone turning west-northwestward. There is some spread in the guidance during this time, with the GFS forecasting a weaker ridge and a more northward track than the ECMWF. Overall, the guidance envelope has again shifted northward from 72-120 h, and the new forecast track does likewise in best agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus and Florida State Superensemble models. The intensity forecast remains low confidence. While the shear near Hector should subside during the next 12-24 h, the forecast track takes the cyclone over slightly cooler sea surface temperatures during this time. This part of the new intensity forecast thus calls for little change in strength. From 24-72 h, the cyclone should move over warmer water in a light shear environment, which looks favorable for strengthening. However, there is sharp divergence in the guidance for this part of the forecast, with the SHIPS and LGEM models forecasting weakening while the dynamical HWRF, HMON, and COAMPS-TC models forecast intensification to a major hurricane. The NHC forecast sides with the dynamical models for this period, and it lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. After 72 h, Hector is expected to gradually weaken as it moves into a drier air mass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 14.1N 126.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 14.1N 128.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 14.1N 130.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 14.0N 132.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 13.9N 135.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 14.0N 139.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 15.0N 144.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 16.5N 149.5W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Hector Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2018-08-03 04:41:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 03 2018 958 FOPZ15 KNHC 030241 PWSEP5 HURRICANE HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102018 0300 UTC FRI AUG 03 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 34 3 76(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) 15N 130W 50 X 22(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 15N 130W 64 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 59(74) 6(80) X(80) X(80) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) 7(41) X(41) X(41) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 5(20) X(20) X(20) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 59(60) 17(77) X(77) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 20(47) X(47) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 14(28) X(28) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 57(58) 16(74) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 16(46) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 13(29) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 36(38) 15N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 15N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BUOY 51004 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 155W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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