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Tropical Storm Hector Forecast Advisory Number 6
2018-08-02 04:35:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 02 2018 515 WTPZ25 KNHC 020235 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102018 0300 UTC THU AUG 02 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 122.2W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 122.2W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 121.7W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.3N 124.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.4N 126.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.5N 128.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.5N 131.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.0N 135.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 13.5N 140.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 13.8N 145.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 122.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Hector Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2018-08-02 04:35:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 02 2018 536 FOPZ15 KNHC 020235 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102018 0300 UTC THU AUG 02 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 3 60(63) X(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) 15N 125W 50 X 17(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 15N 125W 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 24(25) 51(76) 3(79) X(79) X(79) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 62(65) 4(69) X(69) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 4(37) X(37) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 2(17) X(17) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 4(17) 10N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 10N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 47(50) 7(57) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 4(26) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 10N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 38(44) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Hector Graphics
2018-08-01 22:39:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 01 Aug 2018 20:39:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 01 Aug 2018 21:25:34 GMT
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Tropical Storm Hector Forecast Discussion Number 5
2018-08-01 22:37:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 01 2018 384 WTPZ45 KNHC 012037 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 01 2018 Hector continues to become better organized. Microwave data indicate that the low- and mid-level centers are now closer together, and visible satellite imagery is showing more curved banding features. Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB and the CIMSS ADT are all 45 kt, so that will be the initial intensity. Hector should continue to intensify for the next day or so in a favorable environment of light-to-moderate shear and warm SSTs. However, a surge of northeasterly upper-level flow is forecast to impact the cyclone on Thursday, which will likely arrest the strengthening trend. This stronger flow should abate late Friday or Saturday, leading to further intensification. The latest forecast is below the consensus at shorter range, then above the consensus at long range. There remains the potential that the intensity forecast is too low at days 4 and 5, but the model guidance is too divergent with the upper-level environment at that time to have confidence in raising the forecast. Scatterometer and microwave data are showing the system moving westward at 10 kt. Hector should continue moving westward overnight and then even move a little south-of-west for the next few days as the subtropical ridge builds to the north and west of the cyclone. The biggest change from 6 hours ago is that the guidance is faster at long range due to the tropical cyclone staying separate from an upper-level trough in the northwestward part of the eastern Pacific. The latest NHC forecast follows the speedier trend of the guidance, but is not as fast as the ECMWF or UKMET models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 13.8N 121.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 14.1N 122.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 14.4N 125.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 14.5N 127.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 14.5N 129.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 14.1N 134.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 13.5N 139.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 13.5N 143.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Hector Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2018-08-01 22:37:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 01 2018 361 FOPZ15 KNHC 012037 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102018 2100 UTC WED AUG 01 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 X 60(60) 8(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) 15N 125W 50 X 26(26) 5(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) 15N 125W 64 X 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 58(63) 16(79) X(79) X(79) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 25(25) 15(40) X(40) X(40) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) X(17) X(17) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 53(54) 15(69) X(69) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 11(36) X(36) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18) X(18) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 7(18) 10N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 10N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) 14(54) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 10(27) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 10N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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