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Summary for Tropical Storm Hector (EP5/EP102018)
2018-08-01 22:37:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HECTOR NOW WITH 50-MPH WINDS... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 1 the center of Hector was located near 13.8, -121.2 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Hector Public Advisory Number 5
2018-08-01 22:37:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 01 2018 890 WTPZ35 KNHC 012037 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hector Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 01 2018 ...HECTOR NOW WITH 50-MPH WINDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 121.2W ABOUT 970 MI...1560 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hector was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 121.2 West. Hector is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Hector is forecast to become a hurricane on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Hector Forecast Advisory Number 5
2018-08-01 22:37:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 01 2018 891 WTPZ25 KNHC 012037 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102018 2100 UTC WED AUG 01 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 121.2W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 121.2W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 120.7W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 14.1N 122.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.4N 125.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.5N 127.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.5N 129.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.1N 134.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 13.5N 139.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 13.5N 143.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 121.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Hector Graphics
2018-08-01 16:46:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 01 Aug 2018 14:46:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 01 Aug 2018 15:26:26 GMT
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Tropical Storm Hector Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-08-01 16:46:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 01 2018 479 WTPZ45 KNHC 011446 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 01 2018 Satellite images indicate that Hector is on a strengthening trend, with a large area of convection near and west of the apparent center. The latest microwave data, a 1159Z F-16 pass, also show the beginnings of an inner core in the 91-Ghz channels. The system has some tilt, however, with suggestions from the microwave pass that the low- and mid-level centers are not well aligned. The latest intensity estimates from TAFB/SAB are 45 kt, but I've elected to only raise the wind speed to 40 kt due to uncertainty in the initial position and the microwave tilt. Hector is forecast to remain over warm water, with light-to- moderate shear and somewhat dry mid-level moisture for the next several days. In 12 to 24 hours, northeasterly shear is forecast to increase near Hector, which should slow the intensification rate. Thus the official forecast shows strengthening at less than a climatological rate for the next few days. At long range, some of model guidance suggest the upper-level environment could become very favorable, with the HWRF/HMON now showing Hector at category 4 strength in the central Pacific Ocean. I would prefer to see more consistency from these models before showing such a large increase, but the new forecast is raised from the previous one and is higher than the model consensus. The storm is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt. Hector should turn to the west tomorrow and even move a little south-of-west for the next few days thereafter as the subtropical ridge builds to the north and west of the cyclone. The largest uncertainty is the location of Hector in a few days as an inverted upper-level trough forms to the north or northeast of the cyclone. For now there is enough separation of Hector and this trough to prevent the cyclone from gaining much latitude. While the model guidance doesn't show a lot of spread for now, and the new forecast is close to the previous one, it is worth keeping an eye on the trough to make sure it stays separate from Hector at long range. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 13.8N 120.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 14.2N 122.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 14.5N 124.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 14.6N 126.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 14.5N 128.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 14.4N 133.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 13.9N 138.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 13.7N 142.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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