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Tropical Storm Hector Forecast Advisory Number 7
2018-08-02 10:45:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 02 2018 671 WTPZ25 KNHC 020845 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102018 0900 UTC THU AUG 02 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 123.4W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 123.4W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 122.7W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.5N 125.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.6N 127.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.5N 129.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.4N 132.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.0N 136.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 14.0N 141.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 14.5N 146.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 123.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Hector Graphics
2018-08-02 04:37:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 02 Aug 2018 02:37:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 02 Aug 2018 02:37:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm Hector Forecast Discussion Number 6
2018-08-02 04:36:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 01 2018 691 WTPZ45 KNHC 020236 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 01 2018 Visible satellite imagery continues to show an increase in banding in association with Hector, and the last several images suggest that a small CDO may be developing. Recent microwave data, however, has not shown any significant improvement of the inner core. The latest Dvorak satellite estimates are 45 kt from SAB and 55 kt from TAFB, while AMSU and objective UW/CIMSS Dvorak estimates are in between. As a result, the initial wind speed has been increased to 50 kt. An increase in northeasterly shear by tomorrow is expected to temporarily halt the intensification process. However, the shear is expected to decrease after 48 hours, which should allow for strengthening later in the period while Hector remains over warm water. There is still a large spread in the intensity guidance by day 4, with the ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance showing an intensity of around 65 kt, while the HWRF and COAMPS-TC model bring Hector to category 4 strength. Given the large divergence in the intensity guidance at the long range, the NHC forecast remains close to the consensus aids. Hector continues to move westward at around 10 kt. There has been no significant change to the track forecast reasoning. Hector should move generally westward to the south of a strong subtropical ridge through Friday. The ridge is forecast to build westward by the weekend which is expected to impart a west-southwestward motion through the remainder of the forecast period. The overall track guidance envelope has not changed since the previous advisory and the NHC track forecast is near the middle of the envelope. The latest NHC track prediction is very close to the previous NHC advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 14.0N 122.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 14.3N 124.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 14.4N 126.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 14.5N 128.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 14.5N 131.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 14.0N 135.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 13.5N 140.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 13.8N 145.0W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Hector (EP5/EP102018)
2018-08-02 04:35:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HECTOR CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 1 the center of Hector was located near 14.0, -122.2 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Hector Public Advisory Number 6
2018-08-02 04:35:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 01 2018 514 WTPZ35 KNHC 020235 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hector Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102018 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 01 2018 ...HECTOR CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 122.2W ABOUT 1010 MI...1630 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hector was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 122.2 West. Hector is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so. More significant strengthening is forecast to occur in a couple of days and Hector is forecast to become a hurricane by late Friday or Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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