je.st
news
Tag: potential
Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten (AT5/AL102017)
2017-08-28 18:17:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TUESDAY... As of 11:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 the center of Ten was located near 31.4, -80.3 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tags: summary
potential
tropical
cyclone
Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Public Advisory Number 4
2017-08-28 18:17:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 281616 CCA TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Advisory Number 4...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Corrected to clarify that the Tropical Storm Warning begins north of Surf City. ...DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.4N 80.3W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the North Carolina coast from north of Surf City to Duck including the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Duck * Albemarle Sound * Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Surf City to South Santee River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the area of minimum pressure associated with the disturbance was estimated near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 80.3 West. The system is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track the system will move over or near the coast of South Carolina today and move along the North Carolina Outer Banks on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance will likely become a tropical depression or a tropical storm later today or Tuesday. An Air Force plane will check the disturbance later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning tonight and Tuesday and tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area later today. RAINFALL: The low is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches along the northeastern South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeast Virginia coasts, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches. The heavier rains may result in some flooding concerns along coastal areas. SURF: Swells generated by this disturbance will affect portions of the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina coasts during the next day or two, creating dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
Tags: number
public
potential
advisory
Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Forecast Advisory Number 4
2017-08-28 18:14:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 28 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 281613 CCA TCMAT5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102017 1500 UTC MON AUG 28 2017 CORRECTED TO CLARIFY THAT THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING BEGINS NORTH OF SURF CITY. CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK INCLUDING THE ALBERMALE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK * ALBEMARLE SOUND * PAMLICO SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF SURF CITY TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 80.3W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 80.3W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 80.5W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 32.4N 79.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 34.5N 77.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 36.5N 73.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 38.5N 69.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 180SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 42.5N 58.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 150SW 125NW. 34 KT...240NE 300SE 240SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 46.0N 48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 50.0N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 80.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tags: number
potential
advisory
tropical
Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Graphics
2017-08-28 16:57:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 28 Aug 2017 14:57:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 28 Aug 2017 14:57:22 GMT
Tags: potential
graphics
tropical
cyclone
Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Forecast Discussion Number 4
2017-08-28 16:51:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 281451 TCDAT5 Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 The disturbance has not developed a well-defined center yet, and it still consists of a sharp trough extending from northern Florida northeastward across the adjacent Atlantic. The area of minimum pressure appears to be located just east of the Georgia coast. Nearby observations suggest that the winds remain about 30 kt. The disturbance is moving over warm waters but the shear is quite strong for the system to develop significantly. On this basis, the NHC forecasts the disturbance to become a tropical depression and a tropical storm during the next 12 hour to 24 hours. Thereafter, the shear will increase considerably, and most likely the system will intensify as an extratropical cyclone. However, the exact timing of the transition is uncertain since the cyclone will be moving over warm waters. It appears that the area of minimum pressure is moving toward the north-northeast at 8 kt, but this is highly uncertain since we do not have a center. This system is already embedded within the mid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead a trough, and this pattern will steer the disturbance toward the northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed. An Air Force reconnaissance plane is schedule to be in the disturbance later today. The track and intensity forecast, primarily during the extratropical stage, is a blend of NHC forecast with the OPC guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 31.4N 80.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 29/0000Z 32.4N 79.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24H 29/1200Z 34.5N 77.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 36H 30/0000Z 36.5N 73.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 48H 30/1200Z 38.5N 69.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 31/1200Z 42.5N 58.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 01/1200Z 46.0N 48.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/1200Z 50.0N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila
Tags: number
discussion
potential
tropical
Sites : [259] [260] [261] [262] [263] [264] [265] [266] [267] [268] [269] [270] [271] [272] [273] [274] [275] [276] [277] [278] next »