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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Public Advisory Number 6
2017-08-29 04:37:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 290237 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 ...DISTURBANCE LOCATED VERY NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... ...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.5N 80.0W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Duck * Albemarle Sound * Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Surf City to South Santee River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 32.5 North, longitude 80.0 West. The system is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster northeast motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the system will move near or over the coast of South Carolina tonight and across the North Carolina Outer Banks on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is not expected to change much in strength tonight or early Tuesday and the chances for the system to become a tropical cyclone appear to be decreasing. Regardless of whether or not this system becomes a tropical cyclone, tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains are expected over portions of the Carolinas during the next day or so. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area tonight and Tuesday and tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area tonight. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches along northeastern South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeast Virginia coasts, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches. The heavier rains may result in some flooding concerns along coastal areas. SURF: Swells generated by this disturbance will affect portions of the South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia coasts during the next day or so, creating dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A brief tornado is possible tonight through midday Tuesday along the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Forecast Advisory Number 6
2017-08-29 04:36:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 29 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 290236 TCMAT5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102017 0300 UTC TUE AUG 29 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK * ALBEMARLE SOUND * PAMLICO SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SURF CITY TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 80.0W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 80.0W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 80.0W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 34.5N 77.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 90SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 36.9N 73.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 39.0N 69.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 240SE 150SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 40.5N 64.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 120SW 120NW. 34 KT...210NE 300SE 240SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 43.8N 53.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 270SE 360SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 48.5N 39.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 53.0N 23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.5N 80.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Graphics
2017-08-29 01:47:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 28 Aug 2017 23:47:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 28 Aug 2017 21:30:29 GMT
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten (AT5/AL102017)
2017-08-29 01:46:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... As of 8:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 the center of Ten was located near 32.4, -79.7 with movement NE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Public Advisory Number 5A
2017-08-29 01:46:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 282346 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 800 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 ...DISTURBANCE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.4N 79.7W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Duck * Albemarle Sound * Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Surf City to South Santee River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the area of minimum pressure associated with the disturbance was estimated near latitude 32.4 North, longitude 79.7 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the system will move near or over the coast of South Carolina tonight and across the North Carolina Outer Banks on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The strongest winds are over water well to the east of the area of minimum pressure. Although the disturbance has not become any better organized today, there is still potential for the system to become a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. Regardless of whether or not this system becomes a tropical cyclone, tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains are expected over portions of the Carolinas during the next day or so. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 85 miles (140 km) to the east of the area of minimum pressure. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area tonight and Tuesday and tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area tonight. RAINFALL: The low is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches along the northeastern South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeast Virginia coasts, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches. The heavier rains may result in some flooding concerns along coastal areas. SURF: Swells generated by this disturbance will affect portions of the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina coasts during the next day or so, creating dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A brief tornado is possible tonight through midday Tuesday along the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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