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Home › potential

 

Tag: potential

Tropical Storm Harvey Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

2017-08-29 05:35:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Tue, 29 Aug 2017 03:35:47 GMT

Tags: map potential storm tropical

Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Graphics

2017-08-29 04:43:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 29 Aug 2017 02:43:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 29 Aug 2017 02:43:31 GMT

Tags: potential graphics tropical cyclone

Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Forecast Discussion Number 6

2017-08-29 04:41:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 290241 TCDAT5 Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Although the disturbance continues to produce a fairly large area of deep convection, this activity is far from the estimated center and the circulation remains poorly defined. Surface observations and radar data suggest that the circulation of the system is stretched from north-northeast to south-southwest, and the position used in this advisory is near the estimated minimum pressure location. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on the earlier aircraft data and a Dvorak classification from TAFB. Since the system does not have a clear center, the initial motion is an uncertain 020/6 kt. A faster northeastward motion is expected to begin overnight or early Tuesday as a mid- to upper-level trough over the Great Lakes moves closer to the system. The NHC forecast track takes the disturbance across the South Carolina and North Carolina coastline overnight and on Tuesday. By late Tuesday, the cyclone is forecast to move offshore and accelerate over the Atlantic in the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Given the poor organization of the disturbance and the strong wind shear environment that it is embedded within, the chances of this disturbance becoming a tropical cyclone appear to be decreasing. Nonetheless, the potential impacts of tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains across portions of the Carolinas are likely tonight and on Tuesday even if the system does not become a tropical cyclone. The system is expected to become post-tropical in about 24 hours when it interacts with the aforementioned mid- to upper-level trough. Significant strengthening as an extratropical cyclone is forecast for a couple of days due to baroclinic forcing. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts from 36 to 120 h are based on guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 32.5N 80.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 29/1200Z 34.5N 77.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/0000Z 36.9N 73.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 30/1200Z 39.0N 69.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 31/0000Z 40.5N 64.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 01/0000Z 43.8N 53.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/0000Z 48.5N 39.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 03/0000Z 53.0N 23.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Tags: number discussion potential tropical

Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

2017-08-29 04:38:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 29 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 290238 PWSAT5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102017 0300 UTC TUE AUG 29 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) X(24) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 5(20) X(20) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 30(36) X(36) X(36) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 13(13) 8(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW LONDON CT 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MONTAUK POINT 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLIP NY 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PHILADELPHIA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOVER DE 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 10(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 11(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) RICHMOND VA 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 1 15(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) NORFOLK VA 34 1 18(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) OCEANA NAS VA 34 1 24(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) ELIZABETH CTY 34 2 33(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 3 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAPE HATTERAS 34 4 60(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FAYETTEVILLE 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CHERRY PT NC 34 19 25(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) CHERRY PT NC 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 20 35(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) NEW RIVER NC 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 23 28(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) MOREHEAD CITY 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 26 8(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) WILMINGTON NC 34 25 5(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) BALD HEAD ISL 34 34 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) FLORENCE SC 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 19 X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) MYRTLE BEACH 34 15 X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) GEORGETOWN SC 34 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CHARLESTON SC 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tags: number potential speed wind

Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten (AT5/AL102017)

2017-08-29 04:37:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DISTURBANCE LOCATED VERY NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... ...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS... As of 11:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 the center of Ten was located near 32.5, -80.0 with movement NNE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tags: summary potential tropical cyclone

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