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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Public Advisory Number 5
2017-08-28 22:39:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 282039 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 ...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THE DISTURBANCE POORLY ORGANIZED... ...CHANCES TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ARE DIMINISHING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.2N 79.9W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Duck * Albemarle Sound * Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Surf City to South Santee River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the area of minimum pressure associated with the disturbance was estimated near latitude 32.2 North, longitude 79.9 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the system will move over or near the coast of South Carolina tonight and move along the North Carolina Outer Banks on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. These winds are over water well to the east of the area of minimum pressure. Although the disturbance has not become any better organized today, there is still potential for the system to become a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. After that time, the low should begin to intensify as an extratropical cyclone. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 85 miles (140 km) to the east of the area of minimum pressure. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area tonight and Tuesday and tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area tonight. RAINFALL: The low is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches along the northeastern South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeast Virginia coasts, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches. The heavier rains may result in some flooding concerns along coastal areas. SURF: Swells generated by this disturbance will affect portions of the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina coasts during the next day or two, creating dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A brief tornado is possible tonight through midday Tuesday along the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Forecast Advisory Number 5
2017-08-28 22:39:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 28 2017 000 WTNT25 KNHC 282039 TCMAT5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102017 2100 UTC MON AUG 28 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK * ALBEMARLE SOUND * PAMLICO SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SURF CITY TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 79.9W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 79.9W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 80.3W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 33.4N 78.7W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 75SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 35.6N 75.7W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 90SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 38.0N 71.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 40.0N 66.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 240SE 150SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 43.0N 56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 300SE 300SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 47.0N 44.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 51.6N 28.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.2N 79.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Graphics
2017-08-28 19:58:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 28 Aug 2017 17:58:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 28 Aug 2017 15:35:31 GMT
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten (AT5/AL102017)
2017-08-28 19:56:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STILL WITH NO WELL-DEFINED CENTER... ...AIR FORCE PLANE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING... As of 2:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 the center of Ten was located near 31.8, -80.3 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Public Advisory Number 4A
2017-08-28 19:56:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 000 WTNT35 KNHC 281756 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 200 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 ...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STILL WITH NO WELL-DEFINED CENTER... ...AIR FORCE PLANE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.8N 80.3W ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Duck * Albemarle Sound * Pamlico Sound A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Surf City to South Santee River A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the elongated area of low pressure associated with the disturbance was centered near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 80.3 West. The system is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a gradual turn to the north- northeast and northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed are expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the system will move over or near the coast of South Carolina today and move along the North Carolina Outer Banks on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. These winds are occuring over water well to the east of the broad area of low pressure. Although the disturbance has not shown any significant increase in organization today, conditions still favor the system becoming a tropical storm later today or Tuesday. An Air Force plane is currently investigating the disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area tonight and Tuesday and tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area later today. RAINFALL: The low is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches along the northeastern South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeast Virginia coasts, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches. The heavier rains may result in some flooding concerns along coastal areas. SURF: Swells generated by this disturbance will affect portions of the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina coasts during the next day or two, creating dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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