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Home › potential

 

Tag: potential

Tropical Storm Harvey Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

2017-08-28 23:45:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 28 Aug 2017 21:45:05 GMT

Tags: map potential storm tropical

Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Graphics

2017-08-28 22:44:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 28 Aug 2017 20:44:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 28 Aug 2017 21:30:29 GMT

Tags: potential graphics tropical cyclone

Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Forecast Discussion Number 5

2017-08-28 22:40:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 282040 TCDAT5 Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102017 500 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane has been flying through the disturbance and so far the aircraft data depicts a sharp trough with a few spots of tropical-storm-force winds east of the trough axis. The overall cloud pattern has not become any better organized, and most of the weather is located in bands well to the northeast and southeast of the trough. With the shear increasing, the chances for the system to become a tropical storm are diminishing, but if it does occur it should happen within the next 24 hours or so while the system moves near the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Regardless of whether tropical cyclone formation occurs, tropical storm conditions are still expected in the warning area in North Carolina. Beyond 24 hours, the system should acquire extratropical characteristics. However, the exact timing of the transition is uncertain since the cyclone will still be moving over warm waters. In reality, we can not track a center of circulation that does not exist and NHC is following an area of minimum pressure. This makes the initial motion highly uncertain and the best estimate is toward the northeast or 040 degrees at 10 kt. The system is already embedded within the mid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead of a trough, and this pattern will steer the disturbance toward the northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 32.2N 79.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 29/0600Z 33.4N 78.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 29/1800Z 35.6N 75.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 30/0600Z 38.0N 71.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 30/1800Z 40.0N 66.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 31/1800Z 43.0N 56.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 01/1800Z 47.0N 44.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/1800Z 51.6N 28.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila

Tags: number discussion potential tropical

Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2017-08-28 22:39:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 28 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 282039 PWSAT5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102017 2100 UTC MON AUG 28 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 1(27) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) X(19) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) X(31) X(31) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 11(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ROCKY MT NC 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 1 26(27) 3(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 2 22(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) CHERRY PT NC 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 2 27(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) NEW RIVER NC 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 2 26(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 3 20(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) SURF CITY NC 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 5 15(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) WILMINGTON NC 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 12 15(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) FLORENCE SC 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 11 7(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) MYRTLE BEACH 34 11 6(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) GEORGETOWN SC 34 16 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) CHARLESTON SC 34 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Tags: number potential speed wind

Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten (AT5/AL102017)

2017-08-28 22:39:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THE DISTURBANCE POORLY ORGANIZED... ...CHANCES TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ARE DIMINISHING... As of 5:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 the center of Ten was located near 32.2, -79.9 with movement NE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tags: summary potential tropical cyclone

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